1.Disease Burden and Changing Trend of Non-rheumatic Valvular Heart Disease From 1990 to 2019 in China
Shoucai HU ; Yancheng TAO ; Haotian MA ; Chenglong YANG ; Guohui ZHAO ; Yipeng JIANG ; Gawei HU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Circulation Journal 2024;39(8):806-812
Objectives:To analyze the disease burden and changing trends of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease(NRVHD)from 1990 to 2019 in China. Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database,we collected data related to NRVHD in China from 1990 to 2019,analyzed the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate,crude disability-adjusted life year(DALY),and age-scaled rate of NRVHD during this period,and analyzed the corresponding trends.The grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the disease burden of NRVHD in China from 2020 to 2029. Results:The crude incidence,crude prevalence,and crude DALY rates of NRVHD increased in China from 7.87/100 000,123.21/100 000,and 9.83/100 000 in 1990 to 22.85/100 000,374.16/100 000,and 11.95/100 000 in 2019;the age-standardized incidence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 9.22/100 000 and 169.04/100 000 in 1990 to 15.30/100000 and 262.85/100 000 in 2019 respectively,with females being higher than males;the age-standardized DALY rate declined from 13.43/100 000 in 1990 to 9.07/100 000 in 2019,with females being higher than males.Joinpoint regression model analysis showed an increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate,and a decreasing trend in the age-standardized DALY rate(annual average percentage change[AAPC]values of 1.86%,1.72%and-1.66%,respectively),trend of change was statistically significant(all P<0.05).The burden of disease for all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall increasing trend,and the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate and crude DALY rate all increased with age,and the elderly group over 60 years old was the main group of disease burden.The results of the grey prediction model showed that by 2029,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate would increase to 18.51/100 000 and 303.26/100 000,respectively,and the age-standardized DALY rate would decrease to 7.42/100 000. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of NRVHD in China showed an increasing trend,and the age-standardized DALY rate all showed a decreasing trend.The disease burden of NRVHD in China remains high.Women and the senior population are the main target groups needing special attention in China,and more targeted prevention and treatment strategies are needed for high-risk population.
2.The efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy for esophageal cancer: A network meta-analysis
Xin GAO ; Shuolian WANG ; Shuai XU ; Wenwen MA ; Ziang XU ; Gawei HU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(07):1035-1042
Objective To explore the best neoadjuvant treatment strategy for esophageal cancer and provide a theoretical basis for clinical formulation of neoadjuvant treatment plan. Methods PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP were searched from inception to May 2022. Two researchers independently performed literature screening and data extraction. The quality of the studies was evaluated by the Cochrane risk of bias tool, and data analysis was performed in RStudio environment using R3.6.3 software. Results A total of 24 studies were included, covering 5 286 patients treated with surgery alone, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT), neoadjuvant radiotherapy (NRT), or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by combined surgical treatment. The risk of bias of the studies was low. The results of the network meta-analysis showed that combined surgical treatments after NCRT [HR=0.77, 95%CI (0.70, 0.85)] and NCT [HR=0.89, 95%CI (0.81, 0.98)] were effective methods to improve patients' overall survival (OS) compared with surgery alone. In addition, NCRT could significantly reduce the incidence of local recurrence [OR=0.43, 95%CI (0.30, 0.58)] and distant metastasis [OR=0.71, 95%CI (0.52, 0.93)] in patients with esophageal cancer. However, NCRT [RR=1.30, 95%CI (0.77, 2.20)] increased the mortality rate of patients at 30 d after surgery. Conclusion The available evidence suggests that NCRT combined with surgery is the best option for treating patients with resectable esophageal cancer, but this treatment carries the risk of increased 30 d postoperative mortality. Future studies should focus on optimizing the NCRT regimen with the aim of improving patients’ OS while effectively reducing postoperative mortality. In addition, more high-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to support the results of the study.
3.Trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and a gender comparison analysis
Shoucai HU ; Chenglong YANG ; Haotian MA ; Yancheng TAO ; Gawei HU ; Qingxin LI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(04):500-507
Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.