Objective To compare the accuracy of the seasonal time series decomposition method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction of incidence of tuberculosis(TB) in order to facilitate early-warning.Methods The seasonal decomposition model and ARIMA model were constructed by SPSS20.0 software based on time series of monthly TB incidence between January 2005 and December 2014 in Urumqi,China.The obtained models were used to forecast the monthly incidence in 2015 and compared with the actual incidence respectively.Results Between 2005 and 2014,the incidence of TB was higher during March,April and May in Urumqi.A linear fitting model and a cubic curve fitting model were constructed by the time series seasonal decomposition method.The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 18.75% and 92.25%,respectively.The predicted values of the linear model were lower than actual values and the predicted values of the cubic curve model were higher than actual values.An ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,0)12 fitting model was established by ARIMA method.The MAPE of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 9.46% and there were no significant differences between the predicted and actual values.Conclusion The ARIMA method is better than the seasonal decomposition method for predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Urumqi.

ObjectiveTo observe the effects of Qingxin Jieyu granules （QXJYG） on FeCl₃-induced carotid artery thrombosis in rats and on the expression of thrombosis-related proteins tissue factor （TF） and tissue factor pathway inhibitor （TFPI） as well as the protein kinase B （Akt）/nuclear factor-κB （NF-κB） signaling pathway in EA.hy926 cells exposed to tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， thus preliminarily exploring the mechanism of QXJYG in inhibiting thrombosis. MethodsThirty-six SD rats were randomized into normal control， model， positive control （aspirin， 9 mg·kg^-1）， and low-， medium-， and high-dose （0.99， 1.98， 3.96 g·kg^-1， respectively） QXJYG groups （n=6）. The rats in the drug treatment groups were administrated with corresponding drugs， and those in the normal control group and model group were given an equal volume of distilled water. After 14 consecutive days of prophylactic gavage， the rat model of common carotid artery thrombosis was established with 45% FeCl₃ solution， and the blood vessels were collected and the wet weight of thrombus was weighed by an electronic balance （precision of 1/10 000）. The thrombosis in the common carotid artery of each group of rats was observed by hematoxylin-eosin staining. The plasma levels of von Willebrand factor （vWF）， platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 （PECAM-1）， tissue-type plasminogen activator （t-PA）， and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 （PAI-1） were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. An endothelial cell injury model was established by treating EA.hy926 human umbilical vein endothelial cells with TNF-α. The cell counting kit-8 method was used to screen the intervention concentrations of QXJYG. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of TF， TFPI， Akt， p-Akt， NF-κB p65， and p-NF-κB p65 in each group of cells. ResultsThe animal experiment showed that compared with the normal control group， the model group showed an increase in carotid artery thrombus weight （P<0.05）， with unclear vascular structure and extensive thrombosis in the lumen. In addition， the plasma levels of vWF， PECAM-1， and PAI-1 were elevated， while the t-PA level became lowered （P<0.05） in the model group. Compared with the model group， the aspirin and QXJYG groups showed reductions in the weight of FeCl₃-induced carotid artery thrombi （P<0.05） and thrombosis in the lumen， declines in plasma levels of PECAM-1 and PAI-1， and an elevation in the t-PA level （P<0.05）. Moreover， the QXJYG groups showed reductions in the plasma level of vWF （P<0.05）， which， however， had no significant difference between the aspirin group and the model group. The cell experiments indicated that 31.25， 62.5， 125， 250， 500 mg·L^-1 QXJYG had no effect on the viability of EA.hy926 cells. Therefore， 250， 500 mg·L^-1 QXJYG were selected as the intervention concentrations for subsequent experiments. Western blotting results showed that compared with the control group， the TNF-α stimulation downregulated the expression of TFPI （P<0.05）， upregulated the expression of TF， and increased the ratios of p-Akt/Akt and p-NF-κB p65/NF-κB p65 （P<0.05） in EA.hy926 cells. Compared with the model group， the intervention with QXJYG upregulated the expression of TFPI （P<0.05）， inhibited the expression of TF， and decreased the ratios of p-Akt/Akt and p-NF-κB p65/NF-κB p65 （P<0.05）. ConclusionQXJYG has the effect of inhibiting thrombosis and regulating the expression of TF and TFPI in endothelial cells exposed to TNF-α by suppressing the abnormal activation of the Akt/NF-κB signaling pathway.