1.Trend Prediction of Antibiotics Utilization Rate in Outpatients by Time Series Model
Haihuan LIU ; Haichen LIU ; Chenfan WU ; Fangfang ZHENG
China Pharmacy 2017;28(23):3197-3200
OBJECTIVE:To strengthen application management of antibiotics in outpatients,promote rational use of antibiot-ics,and to provide reference for scientific management and decision-making in the hospital. METHODS:The proportion of outpa-tients receiving antibiotics in total outpatients was analyzed statistically during Jan. 2008-Jun. 2016. Utilization rate data of antibiot-ics in outpatients during 2008-2015 were used to establish Autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA),and the data of the first half of 2016 was used to validate established model;the utilization rate trend of antibiotics in outpatients in the second half of 2016 was predicted. SPSS 20.0 statistical software was adopted for statistical analysis. RESULTS:Established ARIMA(2,1, 0)(2,1,0)12 model has higher fitting degree. There was a small difference between measured value and fitted value of utilization rate of antibiotics in outpatients in 2016. Average absolute error was 0.72%,and average relative error was 4.20%,within 95%confidence interval of fitted value. Dynamic trend of model predicted value was basically consistent with measured value. CONCLU-SIONS:ARIMA model simulates utilization rate trend of antibiotics in outpatients well,can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of utilization rate trend of antibiotics. However,for long-term prediction,various factors should be considered.
2.Detection of Gene Mutations in a Family of Congenital Atrichia with Papular Lesions
Li ZHANG ; Zhenying WANG ; Xinjing WEI ; Chenfan LIU
Chinese Journal of Dermatology 2003;0(11):-
Objective To detect gene mutations in a family of congenital atrichia with papular lesions (APL). Methods Polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing were used to search for mutations in the HR gene (a causative gene of APL), the CJB6 gene, and the CDSN gene. Results No mutation was found in these three genes except for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the HR and CDSN genes. Conclusion No mutation is identified in the HR, CJB6 or CDSN gene in this family affected by congenital APL.
3. Steroid-resistant Cronkhite-Canada Syndrome Successfully Treated by Immunosuppressive Agent Combined With Endoscopic Polypectomy
Yueping ZHENG ; Lihua WU ; Bifang WU ; Jie LIU ; Ruizhang SU ; Yiqun HU ; Zeyu ZHENG ; Chenfan LI ; Yun XIE ; Man WAN ; Yiqun HU ; Zhaoxu TIAN
Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology 2021;26(2):126-128