Objective:To do research on prediction method of medical equipment sudden fault for the requirement of medical security at sea which is away from base.Methods: Sudden fault data of the medical equipment is a random variable which often manifest as the time of sudden fault happening. The possible distribution type of fault data is hypothesized according to the engineering experience. In order to ensure the sudden fault density function of medical equipment, parameter estimation and distribution fit test are carried out for the fault data.Results: The sudden fault prediction model of medical equipment is established to get the future sudden fault probability of medical equipment based on the distribution function of fault data.Conclusion: The results of case analysis validate the rationality of sudden fault prediction model.

Objective To observe the protective effect of pretreatment with wortmannin against pancreas and liver injuries indued by severe acute pancreatitis(SAP) in rats and investigate its mechanism.Methods Fifty-four SD rats were randomly divided into 3 groups: control group(C group),SAP group(P group) and SAP+wortmannin group(PW group)(n=18 per group). SAP model was induced by retrograde infusion of 50g/L sodium taurocholate into the biliopancreatic duct of rats,except C group in which sodium taurocholate was replaced by normal saline. Serum level of tumor necrosis factor-alpha(TNF-?)、 alanine aminotransferase(ALT)、aspartate aminotransferase(AST)、and nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-?B)in liver were detected. Histopathology of liver and pancreas was studied.Results In P group, serum levels of TNF-?、ALT、AST and NF-?B in liver were significantly elevated(P