1.Clinical Prediction Models Based on Traditional Methods and Machine Learning for Predicting First Stroke: Status and Prospects
Zijiao ZHANG ; Shunjing DING ; Di ZHAO ; Jun LIANG ; Jianbo LEI
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(2):292-299
Stroke ranks as the third leading cause of death and the fourth leading cause of disability worldwide. Its high disability rate and prolonged recovery period not only severely impact patients' quality of life but also impose a significant burden on families and society. Primary prevention is the cornerstone of stroke control, as early intervention on risk factors can effectively reduce its incidence. Therefore, the development of predictive models for first-ever stroke risk holds substantial clinical value. In recent years, advancements in big data and artificial intelligence technologies have opened new avenues for stroke risk prediction. This article reviews the current research status of traditional methods and machine learning models in predicting first-ever stroke risk and outlines future development trends from three perspectives: First, emphasis should be placed on technological innovation by incorporating advanced algorithms such as deep learning and large models to further enhance the accuracy of predictive models. Second, there is a need to diversify data types and optimize model architectures to construct more comprehensive and precise predictive models. Lastly, particular attention should be given to the clinical validation of models in real-world settings. This not only enhances the robustness and generalizability of the models but also promotes physicians' understanding of predictive models, which is crucial for their application and dissemination.
2.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
3.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
4.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
5.Synergistic neuroprotective effects of main components of salvianolic acids for injection based on key pathological modules of cerebral ischemia.
Si-Yu TAN ; Ya-Xu WU ; Zi-Shu YAN ; Ai-Chun JU ; De-Kun LI ; Peng-Wei ZHUANG ; Yan-Jun ZHANG ; Hong GUO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(3):693-701
This study aims to explore the synergistic effects of the main components in salvianolic acids for Injection(SAFI) on key pathological events in cerebral ischemia, elucidating the pharmacological characteristics of SAFI in neuroprotection. Two major pathological gene modules related to endothelial injury and neuroinflammation in cerebral ischemia were mined from single-cell data. According to the topological distance calculated in network medicine, potential synergistic component combinations of SAFI were screened out. The results showed that the combination of caffeic acid and salvianolic acid B scored the highest in addressing both endothelial injury and neuroinflammation, demonstrating potential synergistic effects. The cell experiments confirmed that the combination of these two components at a ratio of 1∶1 significantly protected brain microvascular endothelial cells(bEnd.3) from oxygen-glucose deprivation/reoxygenation(OGD/R)-induced reperfusion injury and effectively suppressed lipopolysaccharide(LPS)-induced neuroinflammatory responses in microglial cells(BV-2). This study provides a new method for uncovering synergistic effects among active components in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) and offers novel insights into the multi-component, multi-target acting mechanisms of TCM.
Brain Ischemia/metabolism*
;
Neuroprotective Agents/pharmacology*
;
Animals
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Benzofurans/pharmacology*
;
Mice
;
Drug Synergism
;
Caffeic Acids/pharmacology*
;
Polyphenols/pharmacology*
;
Humans
;
Alkenes/pharmacology*
;
Endothelial Cells/drug effects*
;
Depsides
6.Randomized, double-blind, parallel-controlled, multicenter, equivalence clinical trial of Jiuwei Xifeng Granules(Os Draconis replaced by Ostreae Concha) for treating tic disorder in children.
Qiu-Han CAI ; Cheng-Liang ZHONG ; Si-Yuan HU ; Xin-Min LI ; Zhi-Chun XU ; Hui CHEN ; Ying HUA ; Jun-Hong WANG ; Ji-Hong TANG ; Bing-Xiang MA ; Xiu-Xia WANG ; Ai-Zhen WANG ; Meng-Qing WANG ; Wei ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Yi-Qun TENG ; Yi-Hui SHAN ; Sheng-Xuan GUO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(6):1699-1705
Jiuwei Xifeng Granules have become a Chinese patent medicine in the market. Because the formula contains Os Draconis, a top-level protected fossil of ancient organisms, the formula was to be improved by replacing Os Draconis with Ostreae Concha. To evaluate whether the improved formula has the same effectiveness and safety as the original formula, a randomized, double-blind, parallel-controlled, equivalence clinical trial was conducted. This study enrolled 288 tic disorder(TD) of children and assigned them into two groups in 1∶1. The treatment group and control group took the modified formula and original formula, respectively. The treatment lasted for 6 weeks, and follow-up visits were conducted at weeks 2, 4, and 6. The primary efficacy endpoint was the difference in Yale global tic severity scale(YGTSS)-total tic severity(TTS) score from baseline after 6 weeks of treatment. The results showed that after 6 weeks of treatment, the declines in YGTSS-TSS score showed no statistically significant difference between the two groups. The difference in YGTSS-TSS score(treatment group-control group) and the 95%CI of the full analysis set(FAS) were-0.17[-1.42, 1.08] and those of per-protocol set(PPS) were 0.29[-0.97, 1.56], which were within the equivalence boundary [-3, 3]. The equivalence test was therefore concluded. The two groups showed no significant differences in the secondary efficacy endpoints of effective rate for TD, total score and factor scores of YGTSS, clinical global impressions-severity(CGI-S) score, traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) response rate, or symptom disappearance rate, and thus a complete evidence chain with the primary outcome was formed. A total of 6 adverse reactions were reported, including 4(2.82%) cases in the treatment group and 2(1.41%) cases in the control group, which showed no statistically significant difference between the two groups. No serious suspected unexpected adverse reactions were reported, and no laboratory test results indicated serious clinically significant abnormalities. The results support the replacement of Os Draconis by Ostreae Concha in the original formula, and the efficacy and safety of the modified formula are consistent with those of the original formula.
Adolescent
;
Child
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Child, Preschool
;
Female
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Humans
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Male
;
Double-Blind Method
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
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Tic Disorders/drug therapy*
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Treatment Outcome
7.Colon Dialysis with Yishen Decoction Improves Autophagy Disorder in Intestinal Mucosal Epithelial Cells of Chronic Renal Failure by Regulating SIRT1 Pathway.
Yan-Jun FAN ; Jing-Ai FANG ; Su-Fen LI ; Ting LIU ; Wen-Yuan LIU ; Ya-Ling HU ; Rui-Hua WANG ; Hui LI ; Da-Lin SUN ; Guang ZHANG ; Zi-Yuan ZHANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(10):899-907
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the mechanism of colon dialysis with Yishen Decoction (YS) in improving the autophagy disorder of intestinal epithelial cells in chronic renal failure (CRF) in vivo and in vitro.
METHODS:
Thirty male SD rats were randomly divided into normal, CRF, and colonic dialysis with YS groups by a random number table method (n=10). The CRF model was established by orally gavage of adenine 200 mg/(kg•d) for 4 weeks. CRF rats in the YS group were treated with colonic dialysis using YS 20 g/(kg•d) for 14 consecutive days. The serum creatinine (SCr) and urea nitrogen (BUN) levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Pathological changes of kidney and colon tissues were observed by hematoxylin and eosin staining. Autophagosome changes in colonic epithelial cells was observed with electron microscopy. In vitro experiments, human colon cancer epithelial cells (T84) were cultured and divided into normal, urea model (74U), YS colon dialysis, autophagy activator rapamycin (Ra), autophagy inhibitor 3-methyladenine (3-MA), and SIRT1 activator resveratrol (Re) groups. RT-PCR and Western blot were used to detect the mRNA and protein expressions of zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1), Claudin-1, silent information regulator sirtuin 1 (SIRT1), LC3, and Beclin-1 both in vitro and in vivo.
RESULTS:
Colonic dialysis with YS decreased SCr and BUN levels in CRF rats (P<0.05), and alleviated the pathological changes of renal and colon tissues. Expressions of SIRT1, ZO-1, Claudin-1, Beclin-1, and LC3II/I were increased in the YS group compared with the CRF group in vivo (P<0.05). In in vitro study, compared with normal group, the expressions of SIRT1, ZO-1, and Claudin-1 were decreased, and expressions of Beclin-1, and LC3II/I were increased in the 74U group (P<0.05). Compared with the 74U group, expressions of SIRT1, ZO-1, and Claudin-1 were increased, whereas Beclin-1, and LC3II/I were decreased in the YS group (P<0.05). The treatment of 3-MA and rapamycin regulated autophagy and the expression of SIRT1. SIRT1 activator intervention up-regulated autophagy as well as the expressions of ZO-1 and Claudin-1 compared with the 74U group (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Colonic dialysis with YS could improve autophagy disorder and repair CRF intestinal mucosal barrier injury by regulating SIRT1 expression in intestinal epithelial cells.
Animals
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Sirtuin 1/metabolism*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Autophagy/drug effects*
;
Male
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Intestinal Mucosa/drug effects*
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Epithelial Cells/metabolism*
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Colon/drug effects*
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Humans
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Kidney Failure, Chronic/drug therapy*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Renal Dialysis
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Rats
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Kidney/drug effects*
8.Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause Mortality and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural China: 10-Year Follow-up of a Population-Based Multicenter Prospective Study.
Juan Juan HUANG ; Yuan Zhi DI ; Ling Yu SHEN ; Jian Guo LIANG ; Jiang DU ; Xue Fang CAO ; Wei Tao DUAN ; Ai Wei HE ; Jun LIANG ; Li Mei ZHU ; Zi Sen LIU ; Fang LIU ; Shu Min YANG ; Zu Hui XU ; Cheng CHEN ; Bin ZHANG ; Jiao Xia YAN ; Yan Chun LIANG ; Rong LIU ; Tao ZHU ; Hong Zhi LI ; Fei SHEN ; Bo Xuan FENG ; Yi Jun HE ; Zi Han LI ; Ya Qi ZHAO ; Tong Lei GUO ; Li Qiong BAI ; Wei LU ; Qi JIN ; Lei GAO ; He Nan XIN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1179-1193
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality based on the 10-year population-based multicenter prospective study.
METHODS:
A general population-based multicenter prospective study was conducted at four sites in rural China between 2013 and 2023. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to assess the association between BMI and mortality. Stratified analyses were performed based on the individual characteristics of the participants.
RESULTS:
Overall, 19,107 participants with a sum of 163,095 person-years were included and 1,910 participants died. The underweight (< 18.5 kg/m 2) presented an increase in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [ aHR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.66-2.41), while overweight (≥ 24.0 to < 28.0 kg/m 2) and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m 2) presented a decrease with an aHR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37-0.70), respectively. Overweight ( aHR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) and mild obesity ( aHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59-0.87) had a positive impact on mortality in people older than 60 years. All-cause mortality decreased rapidly until reaching a BMI of 25.7 kg/m 2 ( aHR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and increased slightly above that value, indicating a U-shaped association. The beneficial impact of being overweight on mortality was robust in most subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study provides additional evidence that overweight and mild obesity may be inversely related to the risk of death in individuals older than 60 years. Therefore, it is essential to consider age differences when formulating health and weight management strategies.
Humans
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Body Mass Index
;
China/epidemiology*
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Male
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Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
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Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
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Aged
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Follow-Up Studies
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Adult
;
Mortality
;
Cause of Death
;
Obesity/mortality*
;
Overweight/mortality*
9.Liuwei Dihuang Pills-elicited inhibition of MMP-2/MMP-9 via RAGE on tight junction protein of Aβ1-40-injured bEnd.3 cells
Rui DING ; Yong YUAN ; Ya-Quan JIA ; Ai-She GAO ; Zhen-Qiang ZHANG ; Jun-Ying SONG
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2024;46(2):424-430
AIM To investigate the protective effects and the mechanism of the Liuwei Dihuang Pills on mouse brain microvascular endothelial(bEnd.3)cells damaged by β-Amyloid protein1-40(Aβ1-40).METHODS CCK8 method was used to detect the effects of Aβ1-40 and medicated serum of Liuwei Dihuang Pills(MSLDP)on cell activity,and to screen the appropriate concentration.bEnd.3 cells of the control group,the Aβ1-40 group,the MSLDP+Aβ1-40 group and the MSLDP group had their low density lipoprotein-associated protein 1(LRP1),receptor for advanced glycation end products(RAGE),matrix metalloproteinase-2(MMP-2),MMP-9,scaffold protein zonule protein-1(ZO-1)detected by Western blot.bEnd.3 cells assigned into the control group,the Aβ1-40 group,the FPS-ZM1(RAGE inhibitor)+Aβ1-40 group and the FPS-ZM1+Aβ1-40+MSLDP group had their expressions of RAGE,MMP-9,MMP-2 and ZO-1 detected by Western blot as well.RESULTS The cell activity of bEnd.3,was dose-dependently decreased by Aβ1-40(P<0.01),but was protected by MSLDP(P<0.05,P<0.01).And 10 μmol/L Aβ1-40 and 10%MSLDP were selected for subsequent experiments.Compared with the control group,the Aβ1-40 group displayed increased protein expressions of RAGE,MMP-2 and MMP-9(P<0.01),decreased protein expressions of LRP1,ZO-1 and BDNF(P<0.05,P<0.01),and decreased fluorescence intensities of LRP1 and ZO-1(P<0.01).Compared with the Aβ1-40 group,the MSLDP group shared decreased expressions of RAGE,MMP-2,MMP-9 proteins and RAGE fluorescence intensity(P<0.05,P<0.01),and increased expressions of LRP1,ZO-1 and BDNF proteins,and the fluorescence intensity of LRP1 and ZO-1(P<0.05,P<0.01);the Aβ1-40+FPS-ZM1 group displayed decreased protein expressions of MMP-2,MMP9 and RAGE(P<0.05,P<0.01),and increased ZO-1 protein expression(P<0.05);and the Aβ1-40+FPS-ZM1+ MSLDP group displayed an even more decreased protein expressions of MMP-2,MMP9 and RAGE(P<0.01),increased ZO-1 protein expression(P<0.01)due to the the combination use of FPS-ZM1 and MSLDP.CONCLUSION Liuwei Dihuang Pills can protect the tight junction of bEnd.3 injured by Aβ1-40 and neurovascular units from Alzheimer's disease by alleviating the dysfunction of the blood-brain barrier via RAGE-mediated MMP-2/MMP-9 pathway inhibition.
10.Preparation and in vitro-in vivo evaluation of suvorexant orodispersible films
Peng ZHAO ; Cong-hui LI ; Si-yi SHUAI ; Bing YANG ; Hui ZHANG ; Nan LIU ; Ai-ping ZHENG ; Yong-jun WANG ; Zeng-ming WANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2024;59(9):2659-2664
Orodispersible films (oral dispersible films), a novel form of oral solid dosage forms, are widely used for patients with dysphagia and those with uncontrollable autonomic behavior. In this study, suvorexant orodispersible film was prepared by hot melt extrusion technology, and the disintegration time, mechanical properties,

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