Microbiota ; Forecasting

Remote sensing and GIS technology was studied in 2003 to detect and predict the malaria risk in Ham Thuan Nam district, Binh Thuan province where malaria is endemic. The results showed that: there is a chased relationships between natural, environmental and socio-economic indicators and malaria transmission in different areas of the district. The malaria morbidity rate from 1996 to 2002 and environmental parameters such as land cover, vegetation, climate, meteorology... were used for constructing a map to show the risk of malaria in the district through the retrospective and existing data SPOT, LANDSAT and ASTER satellite imageries. Based on this malaria risk map, the malaria situation and epidemic can be detected and prevented.
Malaria ; Forecasting ; Risk Factors

PURPOSE: This study aims to find out ultimate forecasting factors of intention to resign by examining the degree of burnout, job satisfaction, organizational commitment and turnover intention to resign in hospital nurses and to look into the differences among them according to general characteristics. METHODS: This study used investigation of relationships to analyze relations among burnout, job satisfaction, organizational commitment and turnover intention to resign in hospital nurses to find out factors influencing turnover intention to resign in hospital nurses. RESULTS: This study revealed that the higher job dissatisfaction and burnout of hospital nurses, the higher turnover intention to resign. This study also showed that the higher burnout caused the lower job satisfaction which led to resignation and a forecasting factor that influenced turnover intention to resign was burnout. CONCLUSION: It is necessary to conduct continuous and systematic research and to seek ways that can prevent the resignation of nurses and improve job satisfaction in hospital nurses.
Forecasting ; Intention ; Job Satisfaction

The personal recovery movement is beginning to gain traction within Singapore's mental healthcare systems. We believe it is timely to give a broad overview of how it developed and provide suggestions on how it can evolve further. From the early custodial care in the 1800s to the community-centric programmes of the 1900s and early 2000s, we now find ourselves at the forefront of yet another paradigm shift towards a more consumer-centric model of care. The following decades will allow personal recovery practitioners and researchers to innovate and identify unique but culturally appropriate care frameworks. We also discuss how the movement can continue to complement existing mental healthcare systems and efforts.
Forecasting ; Humans ; Singapore

Clinical Medicine ; trends ; Forecasting

BACKGROUND: Recently, current or potential shortage and regional imbalance of anesthesiologists have become controversial issues due to political reasons. Thus, we examined the occurrence of current shortage of anesthesiologists in non-capital areas and forecasted the supply of anesthesiologists in the target period between 2020 and 2025. METHODS: In November 2015, membership data including the type of anesthesia service, age, and regional distribution of the Korean Society of Anesthesiologists (accounting for 73.7% of all anesthesiologists) was renewed. Excepting unidentified members (n = 231), previous data from the 2007 survey were used for analysis. Future workforce projections were determined by adding the number of new anesthesiologists minus the predicted number of anesthesiologists who will retire or die in the targeted period. RESULTS: In 2015, the cumulative number of anesthesiologists was 4,826. The available anesthesiologists in our country numbered 4,515. Of these, 2,675 anesthesiologists (59.2%) have provided surgical anesthesia services with centralization of the capital region (58.1%). The number of the available anesthesiologists in our country were expected to be 4,585 and 5,478 in 2020 and 2025, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The regional distribution of anesthesia services reported by the Health Insurance Report indicated a current centralization of anesthesiologists in the capital region, as a result of anesthesia demand concentration in this area. The age composition of current anesthesiologists as well as the numeric trends of trainees acquiring professional license indicated a stable supply of anesthesiologists over the next 10 years.
Anesthesia ; Forecasting ; Insurance, Health ; Licensure

BACKGROUND: In Korea, the problem of physician workforce imbalances has been a debated issue for a long time. This study aimed to draw key lessons and policy implications to Korea by analyzing projection models of physician demand/supply among five countries. METHODS: We adopted theoretical framework and analyzed detail indicators used in projection models of demand/supply comparatively among countries. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Google Scholar with key search terms and it was complimented with hand searching of grey literature in Korean or English. RESULTS: As a results, Korea has been used a supply-based traditional approach without taking various variables or environmental factors influencing on demand/supply into consideration. The projection models of USA and Netherlands which considered the diversity of variables and political issues is the most closest integrated approach. Based on the consensus of stakeholder, the evolved integrated forecasting approach which best suits our nation is needed to minimize a wasteful debate related to physician demand/supply. Also it is necessary to establish the national level statistics indices and database about physician workforce. In addition, physician workforce planning will be discussed periodically. CONCLUSION: We expect that this study will pave the way to seek reasonable and developmental strategies of physician workforce planning.
Consensus ; Forecasting ; Hand ; Korea ; Netherlands

Forecasting ; Quantum Theory ; Toxicology ; trends

Forecasting ; Humans ; Stem Cell Research

The main objective of this case study is to develop demand forecasting model for drug inventory control in a university hospital. This study is based on the pertinent records during the period of January 1975 to August 1981 in the pharmacy and stock departments of the hospital. Through the analysis of the above records the author made some major findings as follows: 1. In A.B.C. classification, the biggest demand(A class) consists of 9 items which include 6 items of antibiotics. 2. Demand forecasting level of an index or discrepancy in A class drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 30.4% by X-11 Arima method and 84.6% by Winter's method respectively. 3. After the correcting by the number of bed, demand forecasting of drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 23.1% by X-11 Arima method and 46.6% by Winter's method respectively.
Anti-Bacterial Agents ; Classification ; Forecasting* ; Moclobemide ; Pharmacy