Trend and prediction of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China
10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2023.11.010
- VernacularTitle:中国急性乙型肝炎疾病负担趋势及预测分析
- Author:
Huawei QIU
1
;
Tianfu LIANG
1
;
Zhi ZHONG
1
;
Xuejiao JIA
1
;
Yang JIANG
2
Author Information
1. Department of Clinical Laboratory,Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital， Harbin 150081， China）
2. Department of Pathology，Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital， Harbin 150081， China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Acute Hepatitis B;
Cost of Illness;
Forecasting
- From:
Journal of Clinical Hepatology
2023;39(11):2575-2579
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo investigate the situation and development trend of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China in 1990 — 2019. MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to analyze the incidence rate， mortality rate， and disability-adjusted life year （DALY） rate of acute hepatitis B in different sex and age groups and predict the trend of the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B. ResultsIn 2019， the incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China were 1 623.71/100 000， 0.20/100 000， and 10.04/100 000 respectively， which were reduced by 42.03%， 79.38%， and 80.21%， respectively， compared with the data in 1990， and women showed lower incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B than men. In 2019， the 20～<54 years group had the highest incidence rate （2 285.85/100 000） and DALY rate （10.53/100 000）， and the ≥55 years group had the highest mortality rate of 0.52/100 000. The Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the incidence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019， with an average annual percent change of -1.9%， -5.2%， and -5.5%， respectively （P<0.05）. The grey prediction model GM （1，1） showed that the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B will decrease from 2020 to 2030 in China. ConclusionThe disease burden of acute hepatitis B tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019 in China， indicating that the prevention and treatment measures for acute hepatitis B have achieved a marked effect in China； however， due to the large population base of China， active preventive measures should be further adopted to reduce the disease burden of acute hepatitis B.
