Evaluation of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and the end-stage liver disease-sodium model in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure
10.3760/cma.j.cn114798-20220623-00685
- VernacularTitle:中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值和终末期肝病联合血清钠评分对乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后评估的分析
- Author:
Fei LIU
1
;
Xiaoqing FU
;
Chuntao LIU
;
Rui WU
;
Le HUA
;
Shourong LIU
Author Information
1. 浙江大学医学院附属杭州市西溪医院重症肝病科，杭州 310023
- Keywords:
Hepatitis B virus;
Liver failure;
Acute-on-chronic liver failure;
Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio;
Model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score
- From:
Chinese Journal of General Practitioners
2023;22(1):62-68
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To evaluate neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR) and the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium(MELD-Na)score in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF).Methods:A total of 234 consecutive HBV-ACLF patients(194 males and 40 females, aged 23-85 years)admitted to Hangzhou Xixi Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were enrolled. According to the 12-week clinical outcomes, patients were divided into good prognosis group( n=141)and poor prognosis group( n=93). Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were performed to identify independent risk factors for poor prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve was applied to evaluate the accuracy of risk factors in predicting short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. Results:The age [(48.7±11.9) vs. (52.5±9.9) years old, t=-2.59, P=0.011], proportion of males [78.0%(110/141) vs. 90.3%(84/93), χ2=5.99, P=0.014], total bilirubin[202.9(141.2, 287.6) vs. 320.0(224.4, 400.0) μmol/L, Z=-5.14, P<0.001], creatinine [71.0(59.0, 78.0) vs. 81.0(64.0, 111.0)μmol/L, Z=-3.98, P<0.001], international normalized ratio[1.66(1.52, 1.86) vs. 1.91(1.66, 2.27), Z=-5.46, P<0.001], leukocyte count[5.16(3.99, 6.95)×10 9/L vs. 6.57(4.83, 8.30)×10 9/L, Z=-4.14, P=0.001], NLR[2.77(2.02, 3.55) vs. 5.48(3.44, 8.53), Z=-8.48, P<0.001], MELD score[22.0(20.0, 24.0) vs. 26.0(24.0, 29.0), Z=-9.22, P<0.001], MELD-Na score[22.8(20.0, 25.6) vs. 29.0(25.0, 36.0), Z=-9.16, P<0.001], liver cirrhosis[77.3%(109/141) vs. 88.2%(82/93), χ2=4.41, P=0.036], hepatorenal syndrome[4/141(2.8%) vs. 12/93(12.9%), χ2=8.91, P=0.003] and the proportion of artificial liver treatment[21/141(14.9%) vs. 24/93(25.8%), χ2=4.30, P=0.038] were significantly elevated in poor prognosis group compared with survival group. Logistic regression analysis showed that NLR( OR=3.76, 95 %CI: 2.10-6.74, P<0.001)and MELD-Na score( OR=2.24, 95 %CI: 1.17-4.29, P=0.015) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of NLR, and MELD-Na for the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients was 0.792 and 0.822, respectively. The AUC of the combination of NLR with MELD-Na was 0.858, which was significantly higher than that of NLR( Z=-3.04, P=0.001) or MELD-Na score( Z=-2.16, P=0.031)alone. Based on the cut-off value of the combined model, patients were classified into high combined model score (≥0.04) group and low combined model score (<0.04) group, the survival rate of the high group was significantly higher than that of the low group( χ2=67.47, P<0.001). Conclusions:NLR and MELD-Na score are independent risk factors of the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The combination of NLR and MELD-Na score will be beneficial to predict the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.
