The predictive function and application value of hip fracture scoring system in the elderly
10.3760/cma.j.cn121113-20220516-00278
- VernacularTitle:老年髋部骨折评分系统的预测作用及应用价值
- Author:
Hanchen SUN
1
;
Jianxiong MA
;
Haohao BAI
;
Ying WANG
;
Shuangshuang CUI
;
Xinlong MA
Author Information
1. 天津大学天津医院骨科研究所，天津市骨科生物力学与医学工程重点实验室，天津 300050
- Keywords:
Aged;
Hip fractures;
Postoperative complications;
Mortality;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics
2023;43(2):122-130
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish a risk assessment system focusing on surgical and anesthesian-related indicators for the incidence of complications and mortality of hip fracture surgery in senile patients, and to evaluate its prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.Methods:From January 2020 to February 2021, a total of 1 086 elderly patients (493 males and 593 females) aged 76±5 years (ranging from 60 to 94 years) underwent hip fracture surgery in Tianjin Hospital were collected. A total of 543 patients were randomly selected for the establishment of the hip fracture scoring system in senile patients, including 253 males and 290 females, aged 75±6 years (ranging from 60 to 92 years). With the preoperative physiological factor score and surgical risk factor score as independent variables and the occurrence of complications and death as dependent variables, binary logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients. The remaining 543 patients, including 240 males and 303 females, aged 74±7 years (range 60-94 years), their data were used to compare AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and compliance of the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Daping orthopedics operative risk scoring system for senile patient (DORSSSP), and our surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and to compare the predictive value of these systems for complication incidence and mortality.Results:The predictive model equation of the elderly hip fracture scoring system is: ln R1/ (1- R1) =-7.13+0.112× PS+0.148× OS; ln R2/ (1- R2) =-6.14+0.124× PS+0.136× OS; [ R1 is the incidence of complications, R2 is the mortality, PS (physiology score) is the score of preoperative physiological factors, and OS (operation score) is the score of surgical risk factors]. Among the 543 patients whose data were used to compared with the hip fracture scoring system, POSSUM and DORSSSP, 72 actually developed complications and 36 died. The complication rate predicted by surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients was 12.05%±6.34% (range 6.18%-61.29%), and 64 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 6.05%±3.26% (range 2.45%-58.36%), and 29 cases were predicted to die. The complication rate predicted by POSSUM was 25.36%±13.95% (range 9.16%-76.34%), and 126 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality rate was 10.46%±5.31% (range 6.23%-59.34%), and 54 deaths were predicted. The predicted complication rate of DORSSSP was 19.34%±9.67% (range 8.36%-70.85%), and 99 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 10.12%±5.16% (range 7.35%-57.54%), and 52 deaths were predicted. In predicting the incidence of complications, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.95, 0.82 and 0.75, the sensitivity was 0.89, 0.83 and 0.85, the specificity was 0.80, 0.86 and 0.92, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. In the prediction of mortality, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.87, 0.67 and 0.71, the sensitivity was 0.85, 0.69 and 0.75, the specificity was 0.73, 0.94, 0.95, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. Conclusion:Compared with POSSUM and DORSSSP, hip fracture scoring system in elderly patients has improved its ability to predict surgical risk, and can accurately predict the incidence of complications and mortality in elderly patients undergoing hip surgery.
