Construction and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model for the intrauterine adhesions risk factor after hysteroscopic surgery for subumcosal myoma of uterus
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20211220-01430
- VernacularTitle:宫腔镜下子宫黏膜下肌瘤切除术后宫腔粘连发生风险的列线图预测模型构建与评估
- Author:
Liang CHEN
1
;
Xiuwei YI
;
Huaizhong LIN
;
Xiaochao HUANG
Author Information
1. 东莞市妇幼保健院妇科，东莞 523000
- Keywords:
Hysteroscopes;
Submucous myoma of uterus;
Intrauterine adhesions;
Risk factors;
Nomograms
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2022;45(12):1138-1142
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of intrauterine adhesions in patients after hysteroscopic surgery for subumcosal myoma of uterus, and to construct and evaluate a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 322 patients underwent hysteroscopic surgery for subumcosal myoma of uterus in Dongguan Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 2017 to December 2020 were collected. The univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the factors affecting the occurrence of intrauterine adhesions, according to the analysis results, R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model that affected the occurrence of intrauterine adhesions after hysteroscopic surgery for subumcosal myoma of uterus, and the H-L fit curve and the area under the curve were used to evaluate the effectiveness and discrimination of the model.Results:Through a 1-year follow-up, it was found that 47 patients had intrauterine adhesions (adhesions group), accounting for 14.60%; another 275 patients was enrolled in non-adhesions group. The results of univariate analysis showed that combined pelvic inflammatory disease, pregnancy times, history of curettage, combined uterine fibroids, and serumtransforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 level were risk factors that affected the occurrence of intrauterine adhesions ( P<0.05). The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that serum TGF-β1 level, pelvic inflammatory disease, history of curettage and uterine fibroids were independent risk factors that affected the occurrence of intrauterine adhesions ( P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model was established with the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and the discrimination of the nomogram model was evaluated, the results showed that the area under the curve was 0.854, and the sensitivity and specificity were 91.50% and 70.50%, respectively. The validity of the model (H-L fit curve) was evaluated and the results showed that χ2 = 7.12, P = 0.413. Conclusions:Serum TGF-β1 level, combined with pelvic inflammatory disease, history of curettage, combined with uterine fibroids are independent risk factors that affect the occurrence of uterine adhesions after hysteroscopic surgery for subumcosal myoma of uterus. The constructed nomogram prediction model has relatively good effectiveness and discrimination. It can be used as an effective predictive tool for early clinical intervention.
