Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai
10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.22740
- VernacularTitle:上海市人口死亡率变化与城市发展水平的动态关系研究
- Author:
Shan JIN
1
;
Bo FANG
1
;
Renzhi CAI
1
;
Naisi QIAN
1
;
Huiting YU
1
;
Jiaying QIAO
1
;
Lei CHEN
1
;
Chunfang WANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Vital Statistics， Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Shanghai 200336， China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
mortality rate;
socio-demographic index;
gross domestic product;
vector autoregressive model;
dynamic relationship
- From:
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
2023;35(7):654-659
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2
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of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.
