Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220806-00695
- Author:
Yan Hong FU
1
;
Ting Ling XU
2
;
Zhen Zhen RAO
1
;
Jiang Mei LIU
2
;
Ruo Tong LI
1
;
Min LIU
2
;
Shi Cheng YU
3
;
Mai Geng ZHOU
2
;
Wen Lan DONG
2
;
Guo Qing HU
4
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China.
2. National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
3. Office of Epidemiology Research, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
4. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Male;
Female;
Humans;
Risk Factors;
Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology*;
Mortality, Premature;
Smoking;
Cost of Illness;
China/epidemiology*;
Global Burden of Disease
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2023;44(4):581-586
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
