Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to population aging in China, 1990‒2050.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220531-00552
- Author:
Jun Yan XI
1
;
Yan Xia ZHANG
2
;
Xiao LIN
3
;
Yuan Tao HAO
4
Author Information
1. Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
2. Department of Science and Research, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China.
3. Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
4. Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Humans;
Life Expectancy;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years;
Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology*;
Bayes Theorem;
Global Health;
China/epidemiology*;
Aging;
Global Burden of Disease
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2023;57(5):667-673
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.
