Establishment of Mathematical Models for Skeletal Age Determination of Extremitas Sternalis of Clavicle in Shanxi Adolescents.
10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2020.05.005
- Author:
Hua Hua ZHANG
1
;
Chen ZHAO
2
;
Hu Yue LIU
3
;
Na LI
1
;
Ya Hui WANG
4
;
Jun Hong SUN
1
;
Li LU
1
Author Information
1. Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China.
2. Xiaodian Branch of Taiyuan Public Security Bureau, Taiyuan 030032, China.
3. Department of CT Room, Children's Hospital of Shanxi, Taiyuan 030013, China.
4. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine, Key Laboratory of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice, Shanghai Forensic Service Platform, Academy of Forensic Science, Shanghai 200063, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
forensic anthropology;
age determination by skeleton;
extremitas sternalis of clavicle;
mathematical model;
adolescents;
Shanxi
- MeSH:
Adolescent;
Age Determination by Skeleton;
Clavicle/diagnostic imaging*;
Epiphyses/diagnostic imaging*;
Female;
Forensic Anthropology;
Humans;
Male;
Models, Theoretical;
Osteogenesis;
Reproducibility of Results
- From:
Journal of Forensic Medicine
2020;36(5):631-635
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To develop mathematical models for skeletal age determination with multiple statistic method based on the correlation between age and the growth of the epiphysis of extremitas sternalis of clavicle in Shanxi adolescents. Methods The 562 Shanxi sternoclavicular joint samples （454 cases of modelling, 108 cases of external verification） were scanned by the thin-section computed tomography. After volume rendering was obtained, indicators such as area of epiphysis, area of metaphysis, longest diameter of epiphysis and longest diameter of metaphysis of both extremitas sternalis of clavicle were collected. Indicators such as the ratio of area of epiphysis to area of metaphysis, and the ratio of longest diameter of epiphysis to longest diameter of metaphysis of both sides were calculated. Then multiple linear regression and random forest discriminant models were used to build mathematical models for age determination of adolescents. Results The obtained indicators exhibited a strong correlation with age （r>0.85）. The multiple linear regression model for males and females （all 4 indicators entering the model） based on the ratio of longest diameter of epiphysis to longest diameter of metaphysis and the ratio of area of epiphysis to area of metaphysis had an internal validation accuracy rate （±1.0 year） of over 92% and 108 cases had an external validation accuracy rate of over 70% （±1.0 year）. The out of bag error rates of random forest discriminant models were less than 2% for people over 18.0 years old （≥18.0 years old） and under 18.0 years old. The external validation accuracy rates of the 108 cases were over 80%. Conclusion The regression and discriminant models established in this study have certain reliability and accuracy and can be used in age determination of Shanxi adolescents.
