Epidemiological characteristics and risk prediction of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2023.04.035
- VernacularTitle:老年慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者肺部感染流行病学特征及风险预测
- Author:
Hua LIU
1
;
Hexiang LIU
1
;
Ling DUAN
1
;
Hongyong LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Infectious Diseases, Western Theater General Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan 610000 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Elderly patients;
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease;
Pulmonary infection;
Epidemiology;
Risk prediction model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2023;34(4):149-152
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and to construct a risk prediction model. Methods Among of 125 elderly patients with COPD from May 2020 to June 2022 were selected as the research subjects. The epidemiological characteristics of infected patients were counted, and the risk factors of pulmonary infection in patients were analyzed and a prediction model was constructed. Results A total of the 125 elderly patients with COPD, there were 46 cases of pulmonary infection, with the infection rate of 36.80%. The detection rate of Gram-negative bacteria was higher than that of Gram-positive bacteria or fungi (64.44% vs 33.33% or 2.22%, P<0.05). Smoking history, presence of diabetes mellitus, mechanical ventilation, irrational use of antibiotics, and hypoalbuminemia were risk factors for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with COPD (P<0.05). Prediction model of pulmonary infection in elderly patients with COPD obtained by multivariate logistic regression analysis was shown as PI=-1.981+0.657×smoking history+0.806×presence of diabetes mellitus+0.521×mechanical ventilation+0.639×irrational use of antibiotics+0.715×presence of hypoalbuminemia. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=0.812 and P=0.295. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC value of the prediction model on predicting the pulmonary infection in elderly patients with COPD was 0.802. Conclusion The pathogenic bacteria of elderly patients with COPD complicated with pulmonary infection are mainly Gram-negative bacteria. The prediction model constructed according to the risk factors of pulmonary infection in patients has predictive value on pulmonary infection in patients.
