Building of a Clinical Prediction Model for Hemodynamic Depression after Carotid Artery Stenting.
10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.15059
- Author:
Wei-Dong FAN
1
;
Kun LIU
1
;
Tong QIAO
2
Author Information
1. Department of Vascular Surgery,the Affiliated Suqian First People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Suqian,Jiangsu 223800,China.
2. Department of Vascular Surgery,Drum Tower Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210008,China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
carotid artery stenting;
hemodynamic depression;
prediction;
risk factors
- MeSH:
Humans;
Carotid Stenosis;
Depression;
Models, Statistical;
Prognosis;
Stents;
Hemodynamics;
Plaque, Amyloid
- From:
Acta Academiae Medicinae Sinicae
2023;45(1):22-27
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors and build a clinical prediction model for hemodynamic depression (HD) after carotid artery stenting (CAS). Methods A total of 116 patients who received CAS in the Department of Vascular Surgery,Drum Tower Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University and the Department of Vascular Surgery,the Affiliated Suqian First People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 1,2016 to January 1,2022 were included in this study.The patients were assigned into a HD group and a non-HD group.The clinical baseline data and vascular disease characteristics of each group were collected,and multivariate Logistic regression was employed to identify the independent predictors of HD after CAS and build a clinical prediction model.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn,and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Results The HD group had lower proportions of diabetes (P=0.014) and smoking (P=0.037) and higher proportions of hypertension (P=0.031),bilateral CAS (P=0.018),calcified plaque (P=0.001),eccentric plaque (P=0.003),and the distance<1 cm from the minimum lumen level to the carotid bifurcation (P=0.009) than the non-HD group.The age,sex,coronary heart disease,symptomatic carotid artery stenosis,degree of stenosis,and length of lesions had no statistically significant differences between the HD group and the non-HD group (all P>0.05).Based on the above predictive factors,a clinical prediction model was established,which showed the AUC of 0.807 and the 95% CI of 0.730-0.885 (P<0.001).The model demonstrated the sensitivity of 62.7% and the specificity of 87.7% when the best cut-off value of the model score reached 12.5 points. Conclusions Diabetes,smoking,calcified plaque,eccentric plaque,and the distance<1 cm from the minimum lumen level to the carotid bifurcation are independent predictors of HD after CAS.The clinical prediction model built based on the above factors has good performance in predicting the occurrence of HD after CAS.
