Study of incubation period of infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221212-01060
- VernacularTitle:新型冠状病毒Omicron变异株BA.5.1.3亚型潜伏期研究
- Author:
Wei Xia LI
1
;
Li CAO
1
;
De Hao ZHANG
1
;
Chang CAI
2
;
Li Ju HUANG
2
;
Jian Nong ZHAO
3
;
Yi NING
4
Author Information
1. Department of Mathematical Statistics, International School of Public Health and One Health, Hainan Medical University, Haikou 571199, China.
2. Sanya Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Sanya 572000, China.
3. Hainan Medical University, Haikou 571199, China.
4. Department of Mathematical Statistics, International School of Public Health and One Health, Hainan Medical University, Haikou 571199, China The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou 570102, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Male;
Humans;
Adult;
Middle Aged;
SARS-CoV-2;
COVID-19;
Bayes Theorem;
Infectious Disease Incubation Period;
Nucleic Acids
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2023;44(3):367-372
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To study the incubation period of the infection with 2019-nCoV Omicron variant BA.5.1.3. Methods: Based on the epidemiological survey data of 315 COVID-19 cases and the characteristics of interval censored data structure, log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution were used to estimate the incubation. Bayes estimation was performed for the parameters of each distribution function using discrete time Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: The mean age of the 315 COVID-19 cases was (42.01±16.54) years, and men accounted for 30.16%. A total of 156 cases with mean age of (41.65±16.32) years reported the times when symptoms occurred. The log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution indicated that the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was 2.53 (1.86, 3.44) days and 2.64 (1.91, 3.52) days, respectively, and the M (Q1, Q3) of the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection was 2.45 (1.76, 3.40) days and 2.57 (1.81, 3.52) days, respectively. Conclusions: The incubation period by Bayes estimation based on log-normal distribution and Gamma distribution, respectively, was similar to each other, and the best distribution of incubation period was Gamma distribution, the difference between the incubation period from exposure to the first positive nucleic acid detection and the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset was small. The median of incubation period of infection caused by Omicron variant BA.5.1.3 was shorter than those of previous Omicron variants.
