Spatial distribution and prediction analysis of the national AIDS epidemic in 2009 - 2020
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2023.02.017
- VernacularTitle:2009—2020年全国艾滋病疫情的空间分布及预测研究
- Author:
Ruiqi GUO
1
;
Yi HU
1
;
Shuhui MIN
1
;
Xiaofen CHENG
1
;
Bei LI
1
Author Information
1. School of Health Management，Southern Medical University，Guangzhou 510515，China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
AIDS;
Spatial distribution;
Spatial clustering;
Morbidity;
Mortality
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2023;34(2):77-82
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Tto analyze the spatial distribution and characteristics of the national AIDS/HIV epidemics from 2009 to 2020 to discover its distribution, aggregation, and hot spots, and provide corresponding suggestions for AIDS prevention and control. Methods Spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot spot analysis, and Kriging interpolation prediction were used to describe, analyze, and predicting the spatial distribution of AIDS epidemics across the country. Results The national AIDS incidence and mortality rate increased yearly, but the growth rate shows a downward tendency with uneven spatial distribution,focusing on the southwest and northwest regions; the average annual incidence rate of AIDS ( Moran's I> 0, P < 0. 01) and the average annual mortality rate (Moran's I> 0, P < 0. 01) of the distribution had a positive global spatial correlation, with Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Chongqing,Hunan and Guizhou being the areas with “high-high” clusters of AIDS incidence; Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi,Hunan,Xinjiang and Guizhou were the areas with “high-high” clusters of average annual mortality. The “hot spot” areas were mainly concentrated in the southwestern part of China, and the “cold spot” areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal and northern parts of China; Kriging interpolation predicted that Xinjiang would be the new hot spot area for future epidemics. Conclusion The spatial distribution of AIDS in China is uneven, showing spatial aggregation, hot spots and cold spots coexist, and the high-risk areas will continue to expand in the future.So the prevention and control work should be carried out in a targeted and localized manner.
