Development of a validated Diabetes risk chart as a simple tool to predict the onset of Diabetes in Bogor, Indonesia
https://doi.org/10.15605/jafes.037.01.09
- Author:
Eva Sulistiowati
1
;
Julianty Pradono
1
Author Information
1. National Institute of Health Research and Development (NIHRD), The Ministry of Health of Republic of Indonesia
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Diabetes screening;
Diabetes;
Bogor
- MeSH:
Risk Factors;
Cohort Studies
- From:
Journal of the ASEAN Federation of Endocrine Societies
2022;37(1):46-52
- CountryPhilippines
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Objective:To develop a simple, non-invasive tool for predicting the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methodology:A total of 4418 nondiabetic respondents living in Bogor were included in this cohort study. Their ages ranged from 25 to 60 years old and were followed for 6 years with interviews, physical examinations and laboratory tests. The investigators used logistic regression to create a tool for diabetes risk determination.
Results:The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 17.9%. Risk factors significantly associated with T2DM included age, obesity, central obesity, hypertension and lack of physical activity. The Bogor Diabetes Risk Prediction (BDRP) chart had a cut-off of 0.128, with sensitivity of 76.6% and specificity of 50.3%. The Positive Predictive Value (PPV) was 21.6% and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) was 92.3%. The Area under the Curve (AUC) was 0.70 with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.675-0.721.
Conclusion:The BDRP chart is a simple and non-invasive tool to predict T2DM. In addition, the BDRP chart is reliable and can be easily used in primary health care.
- Full text:1225-Article Text-17815-2-10-20220529 (1).pdf
