Change trend and prediction of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou in 2001-2020
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2023.01.007
- VernacularTitle:2001-2020年苏州市肺癌死亡变化趋势及预测分析
- Author:
Lin-chi WANG
1
;
Chun-yan HUANG
1
;
Yu-jie HUA
1
;
Yan LU
1
Author Information
1. Su Zhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Suzhou , Jiangsu 215004 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Lung cancer;
Mortality;
Annual trend analysis;
Epidemiology;
Prediction
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2023;34(1):31-34
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.
