Development of a Stroke Prediction Model for Korean.
- Author:
Ji Sung LEE
1
;
Jong Moo PARK
;
Tai Hwan PARK
;
Kyung Bok LEE
;
Soo Joo LEE
;
Yong Jin CHO
;
Moon Ku HAN
;
Hee Joon BAE
;
Juneyoung LEE
Author Information
1. Department of Biostatistics, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea. jyleeuf@korea.ac.kr
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords:
Korean;
Stroke;
Risk Prediction
- MeSH:
Atrial Fibrillation;
Breast Neoplasms;
Hypercholesterolemia;
Hypertension;
Incidence;
Korea;
Myocardial Ischemia;
Obesity;
Risk Factors;
Smoke;
Smoking;
Stroke
- From:Journal of the Korean Neurological Association
2010;28(1):13-21
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:Korean
-
Abstract:
BACKGROUND: Assessing an individual's risk of stroke can be a starting point for stroke prevention. The aim of this study was to develop a stroke prediction model that can be applied to the Korean population, using the best available current knowledge. METHODS: A sex- and age-specific stroke prediction model that is applicable specifically to Koreans was developed using Gail's breast cancer prediction model, which is based on competing risk theory. RESULTS: The relative risks for major stroke risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, previous stroke, obesity, and smoking status, were obtained from a recent systematic review of stroke risk factors among Koreans. The results were incorporated into the concept of a proportional hazard regression model. For baseline age- and sex-specific hazard rates for stroke, we employed Jee's 10-year stroke-risk prediction model with its reference categories for predictor variables. Death-certificate data from the Korea National Statistical Office were used to calculate competing risks of stroke in our model. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model for stroke incidence may be useful for predicting an individual's risk of stroke based on his/her age, sex, and risk factors. This model will contribute to the development of individualized risk-specific guidelines for the prevention of stroke.
