Predicting the number of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China using the ARIMA-EGARCH model

Hu-ling LI; Xing Feng; Rong-jiong Zheng; Xiao-bo LU; Qiang Zheng; Wei Jiang; Xue-liang Zhang; Kai Wang; Wei-ming Wang

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Predicting the number of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China using the ARIMA-EGARCH model

Author: Hu-Ling LI ¹ ; Xing FENG ¹ ; Rong-Jiong ZHENG ² ; Xiao-Bo LU ² ; Qiang ZHENG ³ ; Wei JIANG ³ ; Xue-Liang ZHANG ⁴ ; Kai WANG ⁴ ; Wei-Ming WANG ⁵
Author Information

1. College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University
2. Department of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital, Xinjiang Medical University
3. Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention
4. Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University
5. School of Mathematics Science, Huaiyin Normal University
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: ARIMA model; Forecasting; Hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH; Visceral leishmaniasis
From: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020;13(2):81-90
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective: To forecast the visceral leishmaniasis cases using autoregress integrated moving average (ARIMA) and hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model, which offers a scientific basis to control visceral leishmaniasis spread in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang, China. Methods: The data used in this paper are monthly visceral leishmaniasis cases in the Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2016. The sample data between 2004 and 2015 were used for the estimation to choose the best model and the sample data in 2016 were used for the forecast. Time series of visceral leishmaniasis started on 1 January 2004 and ended on 31 December 2016, consisting of 1 790 observations reported in Kashgar Prefecture. Results: For Xinjiang, the total number of reported cases were 2 187, the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.42. Patients aged between 0 and 10 years accounted for 82.72% of all reported cases and the largest percentage of visceral leishmaniasis cases was detected among scattered children who accounted for 68.82%. The monthly incidences fitted by ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)