Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030.
- VernacularTitle:1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测
- Author:
Li-Jin LIN
1
;
Ye-Mao LIU
2
;
Juan-Juan QIN
1
;
Fang LEI
3
;
Wen-Xin WANG
1
;
Xue-Wei HUANG
1
;
Wei-Fang LIU
3
;
Xing-Yuan ZHANG
3
;
Zhi-Gang SHE
1
;
Peng ZHANG
3
;
Xiao-Jing ZHANG
3
;
Zhao-Xia JIN
2
;
Hong-Liang LI
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: Bayesian age-period-cohort model; disease burden; infective endocarditis; projection; risk factors
- MeSH: Male; Humans; Female; Aged; Global Burden of Disease; Bayes Theorem; Global Health; Risk Factors; Cost of Illness; Endocarditis; Heart Failure
- From: Chinese Medical Sciences Journal 2022;37(3):181-194
- CountryChina
- Language:English
- Abstract: Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE). Method We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results By 2030, the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale, with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males, but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden, with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China, the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030, respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society, the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men, and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death. Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender, age, regional, and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.
