Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210702-00517
- VernacularTitle:2030年中国恶性肿瘤疾病负担预测研究与危险因素控制效果模拟
- Author:
Yan Hong FU
1
;
Zhen Zhen RAO
1
;
Ruo Tong LI
1
;
Ting Ling XU
2
;
Jiang Mei LIU
2
;
Wen Lan DONG
2
;
Mai Geng ZHOU
2
;
Shi Cheng YU
3
;
Guo Qing HU
4
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China.
2. National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
3. Office of Epidemiology Research, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
4. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Adult;
Aged;
China/epidemiology*;
Cost of Illness;
Humans;
Middle Aged;
Mortality, Premature;
Neoplasms/epidemiology*;
Risk Factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2022;43(1):37-43
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
