Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220107-00025
- Author:
Yan ZHOU
1
;
Wen Jia LIANG
2
,
3
;
Zi Hui CHEN
4
;
Tao LIU
4
;
Tie SONG
5
;
Shao Wei CHEN
4
;
Ping WANG
4
;
Jia Ling LI
2
,
3
;
Yun Hua LAN
2
,
3
;
Ming Ji CHENG
6
;
Jin Xu HUANG
7
;
Ji Wei NIU
7
;
Jian Peng XIAO
4
;
Jian Xiong HU
4
;
Li Feng LIN
5
;
Qiong HUANG
8
;
Ai Ping DENG
9
;
Xiao Hua TAN
9
;
Min KANG
9
;
Gui Min CHEN
4
;
Mo Ran DONG
4
;
Hao Jie ZHONG
10
;
Wen Jun MA
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
2. Institute of Immunization Programme, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
3. Guangzhou 511430, China.
4. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
5. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
6. Institute of Disinfection and Vector Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
7. Institute of Environment and School Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
8. Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
9. Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
10. Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Division, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
COVID-19;
Cohort Studies;
Contact Tracing;
Humans;
Incidence;
Prospective Studies
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2022;56(4):474-478
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease. Results: In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95%CI:3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95%CI:4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95%CI:0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95%CI:9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95%CI:21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95%CI:6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95%CI:1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion: The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.
