Analysis of related factors of prognosis after surgical treatment of patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer and construction of a normagram prediction model.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20200321-00244
- VernacularTitle:非转移性结直肠癌患者术后预后影响因素分析及列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Shu Xia LIU
1
;
Lei ZHANG
2
;
Yuan Kai SHI
2
;
Xiao Hong HAN
3
Author Information
1. Department of Clinical Laboratory, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
2. Department of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing Key Laboratory of Clinical Study on Anticancer Molecular Targeted Drugs, Beijing 100021, China.
3. Clinical Pharmacology Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, NMPA Key Laboratory for Clinical Research and Evaluation of Drug, Beijing Key Laboratory of Clinical PK & PD Investigation for Innovative Drugs, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100032, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Colorectal neoplasms;
Disease-free survival;
Nomogram;
Tumor marker
- MeSH:
CA-19-9 Antigen;
Colonic Neoplasms;
Colorectal Neoplasms;
Humans;
Lymphocytes;
Prognosis;
Retrospective Studies
- From:
Chinese Journal of Oncology
2022;44(2):167-172
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To investigate the postoperative prognostic factors of non-metastatic colorectal cancer (non-mCRC), and construct a prognostic prediction model. Methods: A total of 846 patients with colorectal cancer who were admitted to the Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 were included in the study. There were 314 patients in the metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) group and 532 patients in the non-mCRC group. The data of clinical characteristics, preoperative blood routine and common serum tumor markers for CRC tests were collected retrospectively. The disease-free survival time (DFS) data of patients in non-mCRC group were obtained by follow-up. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to clarify the independent risk factors of DFS, and then these factors were included to construct a nomogram prediction model. The concordance index (C index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results: Platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carbohydrate antigen 242 (CA242) in the mCRC group were higher than those of the non-mCRC group, while the lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR) was lower than that of the non-mCRC group (P<0.05). ROC analysis showed that the area under curve (AUC) of CEA, CA19-9, CA242, NLR, LMR and PLR for the diagnosis of mCRC were 0.775, 0.716, 0.712, 0.607, 0.591 and 0.556, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age, perineural invasion, pN stage and preoperative CA242 level were independent risk factors for DFS of non-mCRC patients (P<0.05). Based on this, a nomogram prediction model predicting 3 years of DFS for non-mCRC patients was constructed, its C index and AUC for non-CRC prognostic prediction were 0.710 and 0.733, respectively, higher than 0.696 and 0.701 of AJCC 7th edition TNM staging system. The calibration curve of nomogram showed that the predicted DFS rate was consistent with the actual DFS rate. Conclusions: Age, perineural invasion, pN stage and preoperative CA242 level are independent risk factors for 3-year DFS of non-mCRC patients. The nomogram prediction model constructed based on these four indictors has a good predictive performance and may provide prognosis evaluation reference for the patients with non-mCRC.
