Prognostic analysis and predictive model construction of textbook outcome after gallbladder carcinoma surgery
10.3760/cma.j.cn113884-20220404-00143
- VernacularTitle:胆囊癌根治性手术后教科书式结局影响因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Mingtai HU
1
;
Qinghe TANG
;
Wencong MA
;
Wanyong CHEN
;
Jinghan WANG
;
Zhihua XIE
;
Yong YU
;
Xiaoqing JIANG
Author Information
1. 上海市东方医院（同济大学附属东方医院）肝胆胰外科，上海 200120
- Keywords:
Gallbladder neoplasms;
Surgical procedures, operative;
Textbook outcome;
Predictive model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery
2022;28(5):337-341
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze independent influencing factors of surgical textbook outcome (TO) in patients with gallbladder carcinoma, and to establish a nomogram for predicting TO and evaluated the predictive ability.Methods:Patients with gallbladder carcinoma who underwent surgery in Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery at Dongfang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Tongji University and Department of Biliary Tract Surgery Ⅰ, Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University (Shanghai Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital) from January 2013 to December 2018 were included and the clinical features were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 232 patients were included, including 114 males and 118 females, aged (61.0±9.8) years. According to whether TO reached or not, they were divided into TO group ( n=86) and non-TO group ( n=146). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the independent influencing factors of TO. The predictive nomogram model of TO was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive ability of the model, and the consistency of the predictive model was evaluated by the consistency curve graph and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results:The 1-year and 3-years cumulative survival rates of patients with gallbladder carcinoma in the TO group (86.0% and 62.8%) were better than those in the non-TO group (46.6% and 27.3%), and the difference was statistically significant (χ 2=60.74, P<0.001). In multivariate analysis, higher T stage ( OR=0.16, 95% CI: 0.03-0.79, P<0.001) and cervical gallbladder cancer ( OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.02-0.94, P=0.004) had the greatest negative association with a TO, and the higher the degree of tumor differentiation ( OR=7.08, 95% CI: 1.34-37.56, P=0.001), the easier it is to achieve TO. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of the predictive model was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79-0.90), suggesting that the model had good predictive performance. A nomogram to assess the probability of TO was developed and had good accuracy in both the consistency curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ 2=5.77, P=0.673). Conclusion:Tumor T stage, tumor differentiation degree and tumor location are independent influencing factors for achieving TO in patients with gallbladder carcinoma after surgery. The nomogram model constructed according to the above conclusions could accurately predict the probability of reaching TO.
