A nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation in patients with acute ischemic stroke after endovascular treatment based on 4-dimensional CT angiography factors
10.3760/cma.j.cn112149-20210826-00798
- VernacularTitle:基于四维CT血管成像的急性缺血性卒中患者血管内治疗后出血转化的列线图模型建立及效能预测
- Author:
Ling LI
1
;
Fang LIU
;
Shun ZHANG
;
Kezhen YU
;
Yao LU
;
Qun GAO
;
Hong WANG
;
Shen HU
;
Juan CHEN
Author Information
1. 国家老年医学中心 中国医学科学院老年医学研究所 北京医院 国家卫生健康委北京老年医学研究所 国家卫生健康委老年医学重点实验室，北京 100730
- Keywords:
Stroke;
Brain ischemia;
Hemorrhagic transformation;
Tomography, X-ray computed
- From:
Chinese Journal of Radiology
2022;56(4):364-371
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To assess the value of 4-dimensional CT angiography (4D CTA) to predict hemorrhagic transformation (HT) with a new nomogram model in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients after endovascular treatment (EVT).Methods:Imaging and clinical data of 101 AIS patients with internal carotid artery and/or middle cerebral artery occlusion who underwent "one-stop" CTA-CT perfusion and EVT in green channel of Beijing Hospital from March 2016 to November 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into HT group (45 patients) and non-HT group (56 patients). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to select relevant clinical and imaging variables, such as age, initial National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score, 4D CTA collateral circulation score, Alberta stroke program early CT score (ASPECTS), clot burden score, and a predictive nomogram model were developed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the efficacy of predictive nomogram model for diagnosing HT.Results:Univariate analysis showed that there were significant difference of age[79.00(68.00, 85.00) years, 73.00(62.75, 80.00) years, Z=-2.20, P=0.028], NIHSS score [16.00(12.00, 21.00), 9.50(6.00, 14.00), Z=-4.44, P<0.001], ASPECTS score [5.00(3.00, 8.00), 8.00(7.00, 9.00), Z=-4.23, P<0.001], 4D CTA collateral circulation score [2.00(0, 3.00), 3.00(3.00, 4.00), Z=-5.39, P<0.001], clot burden score [4.00(1.00, 7.00), 7.50(6.00, 9.00), Z=-3.42, P=0.001], location of the occlusion(internal carotid artery/middle cerebral artery occlusion was 23/22, 11/45 cases, χ2=9.70, P=0.002), and atrial fibrillation (27 and 19 cases respectively, χ2=5.83, P=0.016) between HT group and non-HT group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ASPECTS score (OR=0.64, 95%CI 0.47-0.87), NIHSS score (OR=1.13, 95%CI 1.01-1.26), 4D CTA collateral circulation score (OR=0.40,95%CI 0.22-0.76) were independent predictors of HT in AIS patients ( P<0.05). The AUC of the nomogram based on the ASPECTS score, NIHSS score and 4D CTA collateral circulation score to predict HT of AIS patients was 0.876 (95%CI 0.807-0.945), with a sensitivity of 77.8% and specificity of 87.5%. Conclusions:Patients with low ASPECTS score, high NIHSS score and low 4D CTA collateral circulation score have a higher risk of HT after EVT. The nomogram model may predict the probability of HT of AIS patients and provide effective assistance for clinical decision-making.
