Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

Qinxue Chang; Keyun Wang; Honglu Zhang; Changping LI; Yong Wang; Huaiqi Jing; Shanshan LI; Yuming Guo; Zhuang Cui; Wenyi Zhang

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Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

Author: Qinxue CHANG ¹ ; Keyun WANG ¹ ; Honglu ZHANG ¹ ; Changping LI ¹ ; Yong WANG ² ; Huaiqi JING ³ ; Shanshan LI ⁴ ; Yuming GUO ⁴ ; Zhuang CUI ¹ ; Wenyi ZHANG ²
Author Information

1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University.
2. Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
3. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
4. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Bacillary dysentery; Distributed lag non-linear model; Generalized additive model; Nonlinear and interaction effects
MeSH: Beijing/epidemiology*; China/epidemiology*; Dysentery, Bacillary/epidemiology*; Humans; Humidity; Temperature
From:Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2022;27(0):13-13
CountryJapan
Language:English
Abstract: BACKGROUND:Although previous studies have shown that meteorological factors such as temperature are related to the incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD), researches about the non-linear and interaction effect among meteorological variables remain limited. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature and other meteorological variables on BD in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is a high-risk area for BD distribution.
METHODS:Our study was based on the daily-scale data of BD cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2019, using generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the lag and cumulative effects. The interaction effects and stratified analysis were developed by the GAM.
RESULTS:A total of 147,001 cases were reported from 2014 to 2019. The relationship between temperature and BD was approximately liner above 0 °C, but the turning point of total temperature effect was 10 °C. Results of DLNM indicated that the effect of high temperature was significant on lag 5d and lag 6d, and the lag effect showed that each 5 °C rise caused a 3% [Relative risk (RR) = 1.03, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.05] increase in BD cases. The cumulative BD cases delayed by 7 days increased by 31% for each 5 °C rise in temperature above 10 °C (RR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.30-1.33). The interaction effects and stratified analysis manifested that the incidence of BD was highest in hot and humid climates.
CONCLUSIONS:This study suggests that temperature can significantly affect the incidence of BD, and its effect can be enhanced by humidity and precipitation, which means that the hot and humid environment positively increases the incidence of BD.