Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data
- Author:
Seyed Saeed HASHEMI NAZARI
1
;
Kamyar MANSORI
;
Hajar NAZARI KANGAVARI
;
Ahmad SHOJAEI
;
Shahram ARSANG-JANG
Author Information
- Publication Type:Original Article
- From:Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 2022;55(2):164-172
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Objectives:We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016.
Methods:In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used.
Results:The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran’s provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran’s provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years.
Conclusions:The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran’s northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.
