Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

Ying WANG; Xinyi YOU; Yijing WANG; Liping PENG; Zhicheng DU; Stuart GILMOUR; Daisuke YONEOKA; Jing GU; Chun HAO; Yuantao HAO; Jinghua LI

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Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

VernacularTitle:中国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情再生系数评估
Author: Ying WANG ¹ ; Xinyi YOU ¹ ; Yijing WANG ^{1
,

2} ; Liping PENG ¹ ; Zhicheng DU ¹ ; Stuart GILMOUR ³ ; Daisuke YONEOKA ³ ; Jing GU ^{1
,

4} ; Chun HAO ^{1
,

4} ; Yuantao HAO ^{1
,

4} ; Jinghua LI ^{1
,

4}
Author Information

1. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
2. Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045
3. Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045
4. Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: COVID-19; Basic reproduction number; Transmission rate
From: Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2020;41(4):476-479
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Method The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R 0 . Result Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R 0 was 3.49 (95% CI : 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R 0 was estimated to be 2.95 (95% CI : 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusion In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R 0 using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.