Application of TBATS in the prediction of mumps incidence
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2022.02.003
- VernacularTitle:TBATS模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用
- Author:
Tian LIU
1
;
Yeqing TONG
2
;
Yinbo LUO
2
;
Jigui HUANG
1
;
Dexin RUAN
1
;
Menglei YAO
1
;
Qingbo HOU
1
Author Information
1. Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou 434000, Hubei, China
2. Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
TBATS;
Mumps;
Prediction;
SARIMA
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2022;33(2):11-15
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the applicability of the TBATS in predicting the incidence of mumps. Methods The incidence of mumps of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2017 was used as the demonstration data. The incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province from July to December 2017 was used as test data. The training data from January 2004 to June 2017 were used to train the TBATS and the SARIMA, and predict the value from July to December 2017. The fitted and predicted values were compared with the test data. The MAPE, RMSE, MAE and MER were used to evaluate model fitting and prediction effects. Results SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 with drift was the optimal SARIMA. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER fitted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 15.06%, 0.21, 0.29, 13.57% and 21.93%, 0.29, 0.41, 18.73%, respectively. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER predicted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 7.95%, 0.08, 0.11, 7.12% and 15.33%, 0.17, 0.18, 14.93%. Conclusion The TBATS has high accuracy in predicting the incidence of mumps and is worthy of popularization and application.
