Factors Defining the Development of Severe Illness in Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Study.
- Author:
Yi Bai XIONG
1
;
Ya Xin TIAN
1
;
Yan MA
1
;
Wei YANG
1
;
Bin LIU
1
;
Lian Guo RUAN
2
;
Cheng LU
1
;
Lu Qi HUANG
3
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: COVID-19; Nomogram; Risk factors; Severe illness
- MeSH: Aged; COVID-19/diagnosis*; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Nomograms; Retrospective Studies; Risk Assessment; Severity of Illness Index
- From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2021;34(12):984-991
- CountryChina
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Objective:Early triage of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is pivotal in managing the disease. However, studies on the clinical risk score system of the risk factors for the development of severe disease are limited. Hence, we conducted a clinical risk score system for severe illness, which might optimize appropriate treatment strategies.
Methods:We conducted a retrospective, single-center study at the JinYinTan Hospital from January 24, 2020 to March 31, 2020. We evaluated the demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and performed a 10-fold cross-validation to split the data into a training set and validation set. We then screened the prognostic factors for severe illness using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression, and finally conducted a risk score to estimate the probability of severe illness in the training set. Data from the validation set were used to validate the score.
Results:A total of 295 patients were included. From 49 potential risk factors, 3 variables were measured as the risk score: neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (
Conclusion:This report may help define the potential of developing severe illness in patients with COVID-19 at an early stage, which might be related to the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, albumin, and chest computed tomography abnormalities.
