Estimation of physician demand based on an unequal weight combination forecasting model
10.3760/cma.j.cn111325-20210125-00072
- VernacularTitle:基于不等权组合预测模型法的医师需求数量预测研究
- Author:
Deming YAO
1
;
Yuan DANG
;
Ning WU
Author Information
1. 北京医院 国家老年医学中心 中国医学科学院老年医学研究院 100730
- Keywords:
Health manpower;
Physician demand;
Demand measurement;
Combined forecasting model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration
2021;37(7):570-574
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To measure the demand of physicians in 2020-2035 period by constructing an unequal weight combination forecasting model, and to provide scientific reference for health manpower planning.Methods:This study called into play the trend extrapolation method, human/population ratio method and health service demand method to preliminarily predict the demand of physicians in 2020-2035, followed by Delphi method to carry out unequal weight combination of the results of these three methods. Hence the physicians demand in 2020-2035 in China was calculated.Results:Based on the unequal weight combination forecasting model, the physicians demand of the period in China was estimated to increase from 2.64 people / 1 000 population to 3.67 people / 1 000 population, and the physicians demand to gradually increase at a growth rate in gradual slowdown.Conclusions:This research used the unequal weight combination forecast model, based on the service demand and the historical situation. It is suggested that relevant policies of medical education and specialists division be made based on both the demand and the factors affecting the supply and demand balance of physicians.
