Discriminant analysis of the risk of nosocomial mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock
10.3760/cma.j.cn113855-20210309-00143
- VernacularTitle:创伤出血性休克患者院内死亡风险的判别分析
- Author:
Xiujuan ZHAO
1
;
Chu WANG
;
Wei HUANG
;
Panpan CHANG
;
Fuzheng GUO
;
Zhenzhou WANG
;
Fengxue ZHU
;
Tianbing WANG
Author Information
1. 国家创伤医学中心 北京大学人民医院创伤救治中心 创伤救治与神经再生教育部重点实验室 100044
- Keywords:
Shock, hemorrhagic;
Wounds and injuries;
Hospital mortality;
Risk assessment
- From:
Chinese Journal of General Surgery
2021;36(8):608-611
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the use of discriminant analysis to predict the risk of nosocomial mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock.Methods:The clinical data of 238 patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock admitted to Peking University People's Hospital from Sep 2013 to Aug 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into survival group (214 cases) and death group (24 cases). Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to establish a discriminant model.Results:The difference of history of stroke (9.8% vs. 25.0%), main site of bleeding (extremities)(58.9% vs. 29.2%), APACHEⅡ score (16.4±5.1 vs. 23.2±6.1), blood lactic acid [2.1(1.1-3.5) mmol/L vs. 4.9(2.0-13.4) mmol/L] and surgery (92.5% vs. 58.3%) between the two groups was all statistically significant (all P<0.05). Finally, There are five indicators that entered the discriminant model: history of stroke, main site of bleeding (extremities), blood lactic acid, APACHE Ⅱ score and surgery. The area under the ROC curve for predicting the risk of mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock was 0.857, 95% CI 0.754-0.959. Conclusions:The established discriminant model has a high accuracy in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock.
