The evaluation value of three scoring systems for the prognosis of pediatric acute liver failure
10.3760/cma.j.cn101070-20200509-00795
- VernacularTitle:3种评分系统对急性肝衰竭患儿预后的评估价值
- Author:
Zhenzhen CHEN
1
;
Haiying LI
;
Qiannan JIANG
;
Zipu LI
Author Information
1. 青岛妇女儿童医院儿童重症监护室，山东 青岛 266000
- Keywords:
Pediatric acute liver failure;
Child-Turcotte-Pugh score;
Pediatrics end-stage liver disease/model for end-stage liver disease;
Sequential organ failure
- From:
Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics
2021;36(18):1398-1402
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the prognosis value of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), pediatrics end-stage liver disease/model for end-stage liver disease(PELD/MELD) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) at 28 th day. Methods:Fifty-four PALF patients admitted in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and Infection Department of Pediatrics, Qingdao Women′s and Children′s Hospital from June 1, 2012 to June 1, 2019 were included in the study.According to the survival of PALF patients on the 28 th day, they were divided into the survival group (28 cases) and the death group (26 cases). Baseline characte-ristics and laboratory examination data of PALF patients in both groups were collected and compared.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the prognostic value of CTP, PELD/MELD and SOFA scores in PALF. Results:The mortality rate of 54 PALF patients was 48.1%.Compared with the survival group, PALF patients in the death group were significantly younger than those in survival group [11.0(3.8-39.0) months vs.14.5(7.3-84.0) months]( Z=-2.145, P=0.020). In addition, CTP, PELD/MELD and SOFA scores were significantly higher in the death group than those in survival group [14.0(11.7-15.0) vs.9.0(7.0-10.0), 32.0(29.0-36.0) vs.25.0(22.0-26.0), 13.0(11.0-16.0) vs.6.0(4.0-7.0)]( Z=-5.095, -4.894, -5.502, all P<0.05). Serum lactate level, blood ammonia level, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin and international normalized ratio were significantly higher in the death group than those in survival group [3.4(2.1-5.3) mmol/L vs.1.5(0.8-2.3) mmol/L, 69.5(46.9-102.9) μmol/L vs.41.7(27.3-50.3) μmol/L, 173.0(97.0-237.2) μmol/L vs.71.9(62.0-136.9) μmol/L, 132.3(53.6-206.2)μmol/L vs.59.3(62.0-99.7) μmol/L, 2.6(1.8-3.5) vs.1.7(1.5-1.9)]( Z=-4.027, -3.220, -2.649, -2.648, -3.807, all P<0.05). Prothrombin time (PT) was significantly prolonged in the death group than that of survival group [27.5(19.2-41.9)s vs.17.8(16.9-22.2)s]( Z=-3.489, P<0.05). Compared with those of survival group, serum albumin, alanine transaminase (ALT) and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels were significantly lower in the death group [(30.9±1.0) g/L vs.(33.6±0.9) g/L, 379.2(163.3-880.3) U/L vs.962.5(457.0-1 657.3) U/L, 7.5(0.7-115.8) μg/L vs.22.1(7.9-91.3) μg/L]( t=2.049, Z=-2.510, -2.342, respectively, all P<0.05). The incidence of alimentary tract hemorrhage was significantly higher in the death group than that of survival group (22/26 cases vs.11/28 cases)( χ2=13.340, P<0.05). The cut-off value of CTP, PELD/MELD and SOFA scores in predicting the prognosis of PALF were 11.5, 28.5 and 10.0, respectively.Among the three scoring systems, the specificity and positive predictive value of SOFA scores remained the highest.The sensitivity and specific of a combination of three scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of PALF were 92.3% and 89.3%, respectively, and its Youden index was the highest than that of a single scoring of either CTP, PELD/MELD or SOFA ( Z=2.19, P<0.05). Conclusions:CTP, PELD/MELD and SOFA scores have high predictive value for the short-term prognosis of PALF.The combined detection of the three scoring systems can improve the forecasting efficiency of PALD.
