Research progress of infectious disease dynamics models
10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2022.01.011
- Author:
XUE Mingjin
;
HUANG Zhaowei
;
HU Yudi
;
DU Jinlin
;
HUANG Zhigang
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
infectious disease dynamics model；emerging infectious disease；SIR；SEIR
- From:
Journal of Preventive Medicine
2022;34(1):53-57
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
The management of emerging infectious diseases has always been given a high priority in public health. Identification of the epidemiological characteristics and transmission patterns of emerging infectious diseases is of great significance to contain the disease transmission and reduce the damages to public health and socioeconomic developments. Currently, infectious disease dynamics models are mainly established based on infectious disease surveillance data to predict the epidemiological patterns and trends of emerging infectious diseases; however, many model-based predictions fail to achieve the expected results due to the presence of multiple uncertain factors during the integrated management of infectious diseases. This review describes the basic principles and variables of common infectious disease dynamics models, including the susceptible-infected-recovered ( SIR ) model, susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible ( SIRS ) model, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ( SEIR ) model and improved SEIR model, compares the advantages and disadvantages of these models, and summarizes the advances of the infectious disease dynamics models in the prediction of trends in incidence of emerging infectious diseases, so as to provide insights into the effective application of infectious disease dynamics models in the management of infectious diseases.
- Full text:传染病动力学模型研究进展.pdf
