Establishment of a predictive model for the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with plasma exchange and double plasma molecular adsorption system alone or in combination
10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2021.12.015
- VernacularTitle:血浆置换与双重血浆分子吸附系统单用或联合使用治疗HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后预测模型的建立与评估
- Author:
Beibei HUANG
1
;
Ling NING
1
;
Wenyuan LI
1
;
Xiaowei ZHENG
1
;
Yue ZHANG
1
;
Shouwei JIANG
1
;
Zhenhua ZHANG
2
;
Lei LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Infectious Diseases, The Affiliated Provincial Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230001, China
2. Department of Infectious and Liver Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230601, China
- Publication Type:Original articles_Viral hepatitis
- Keywords:
Liver Failure;
Hepatitis B virus;
Liver, Artificial;
Prognosis
- From:
Journal of Clinical Hepatology
2021;37(12):2802-2807
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To observe the 24-week survival status of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) treated with plasma exchange (PE) and double plasma molecular adsorption system (DPMAS) alone or in combination, and to establish a predictive model for 24-week prognosis. Methods Related clinical data were collected from 133 patients with HBV-ACLF who received PE and DPMAS alone or in combination in The Affiliated Provincial Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2015 to December 2019, and according to the survival status at the 24-week follow-up after treatment, they were divided into survival group with 71 patients and death group with 62 patients. A total of 55 patients with HBV-ACLF who received PE and DPMAS alone or in combination in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2018 to January 2020 were enrolled as validation group to validate the performance of the model. Related clinical data included mode of artificial liver support therapy, age, sex, total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), creatinine (Cr), serum sodium, platelet count (PLT), albumin (Alb), and presence or absence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and gastrointestinal bleeding. The t -test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between two groups; the chi-square test and the Fisher's exact test were used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The Cox regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients after PE and DPMAS alone or in combination and establish a predictive model; the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the DeLong method was used to compare the area under the ROC curve (AUC) between the new predictive model and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)/MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na) scores. Results At 24 weeks after treatment, 71 patients survived and 62 patients died in the modeling group. The Cox regression analysis showed age (hazard ratio [ HR ]=1.030, P =0.013), TBil ( HR =1.018, P < 0.001), INR ( HR =1.517, P < 0.001), and PLT ( HR =0.993, P =0.04) were independent influencing factors for 24-week survival. According to the results of the Cox regression analysis, a prognostic model for HBV-ACLF patients treated with PE and DPMAS alone or in combination was established as ATIP=0.029×age (years)+0.018×TBil (mg/dL)+0.417×INR-0.007×PLT (10 9 /L). Both the modeling group and the validation group showed that the ATIP model had a better predictive performance than MELD and MELD-NA scores(all P < 0.05). Conclusion Age, TBil, INR, and PLT are independent influencing factors for the 24-week survival of HBV-ACLF patients treated with PE and DPMAS alone or in combination, and the ATIP model has a good performance in predicting the 24-week prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients treated with PE and DPMAS alone or in combination.
