Predictive value of simple predictive model for prognosis of patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction
10.7507/1007-4848.202012028
- VernacularTitle:急性 ST 段抬高型心肌梗死患者预后急诊简易预测模型的构建
- Author:
Jing YU
1
,
2
;
Dongze LI
1
,
2
;
Yu JIA
1
,
2
;
Yisong CHENG
1
,
2
;
Yongli GAO
1
,
2
;
Rui ZENG
3
;
Zhi WAN
1
,
2
Author Information
1. 1. Department of Emergence Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, P.R.China
2. 2. Disaster Medical Center, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, P.R.China
3. Department of Cardiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, P.R.China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction;
predictive model;
prognosis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2021;28(11):1346-1351
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the predictive value of a simple prediction model for patients with acute myocardial infarction. Methods Clinical data of 280 patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the Department of Emergence Medicine, West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2019 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into a death group (n=34) and a survival group (n=246). Results Age, heart rate, body mass index (BMI), global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction trial (TIMI) score, blood urea nitrogen, serum cystatin C and D-dimer in the survival group were less or lower than those in the death group (P<0.05). Left ventricle ejection fraction and the level of albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol were higher and the incidence of Killip class≥Ⅲ was lower in the survival group compared to the death group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, BMI, heart rate, diastolic blood pressure, and systolic blood pressure were independent risk factors for all-cause death in STEMI patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of simple prediction model for predicting death was 0.802, and similar to that of GRACE (0.816). The H-L test showed that the simple model had high accuracy in predicting death (χ2=3.77, P=0.877). Pearson correlation analysis showed that the simple prediction model was significantly correlated with the GRACE (r=0.651, P<0.001) and coronary artery stenosis score (r=0.210, P=0.001). Conclusion The simple prediction model may be used to predict the hospitalization and long-term outcomes of STEMI patients, which is helpful to stratify high risk patients and to guide treatment.
