Prognostic value of modified Charlson comorbidity index combined with serum albumin for long-term prognosis in peritoneal dialysis patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn441217-20200825-00046
- VernacularTitle:改良查尔森合并症指数联合血清白蛋白对腹膜透析患者远期预后的预测价值
- Author:
Mingzhuo ZHANG
;
Qingyan ZHANG
;
Chunming JIANG
;
Cheng SUN
;
Yuan CUI
;
Ying LIU
;
Pengfei XU
;
Miao ZHANG
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nephrology
2021;37(4):333-340
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To assess the prognostic value of modified Charlson comorbidity index (mCCI) combined with serum albumin for long-term prognosis in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.Methods:From January 1, 2007 to June 30, 2015, patients who started PD in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical data including gender, age, underlying diseases, laboratory examination and prognosis were collected. The mCCI at the beginning of PD was calculated. Whether the duration of PD exceeded 5 years was used as an indicator to evaluate the prognosis. The patients were divided into≥5 years group and<5 years group according to the duration of PD, and the data were compared between the two groups. Cox regression model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of all-cause death in PD patients. Multivariate logistic regression model and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to analyze the predictive value of mCCI and serum albumin levels on whether patients could maintain long-term PD.Results:Of the 183 patients included [males 106(57.9%), females 77(42.1%); (53.35±16.50) years old; 162 cases (88.5%) with hypertension, 55 cases (30.1%) with diabetes], 97 cases had PD duration for ≥5 years and 86 cases less than 5 years. The overall 5-year technical survival rate was 65.1%. At the beginning of PD, compared with the dialysis age≥5 years group, the patients in the dialysis age less than 5 years group had older age, higher mCCI, lower serum albumin level, and higher C-reactive protein (CRP) level (all P<0.05), but there were no significant differences in gender, education level, electrolyte, mean arterial pressure, high densitv lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and PD adequacy index between the two groups (all P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that increased age ( OR=1.022, 95% CI 1.000-1.043, P=0.046), increased mCCI ( OR=1.620, 95% CI 1.300-2.018, P<0.001) and decreased serum albumin ( OR=0.807, 95% CI 0.730-0.893, P<0.001) were independent predictors for the duration of PD<5 years. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curves ( AUC) of mCCI, serum albumin level and combined prediction probability of the two for the duration of PD<5 years were 0.647(95% CI 0.568-0.727), 0.655(95% CI 0.577-0.734), and 0.767(95% CI 0.700-0.835), respectively, indicating that the accuracy of combined parameters to predict survival outcome was higher than that of any single parameter. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that increased age ( HR=1.073, 95% CI 1.046-1.100, P<0.001), increased mCCI ( HR=1.198, 95% CI 1.044-1.375, P=0.010) and decreased serum albumin ( HR=0.904, 95% CI 0.843-0.969, P=0.004) were independent influencing factors for all-cause death in PD patients. Conclusions:Old age, high mCCI and low serum albumin level are influencing factors for dialysis age<5 years and all-cause death in PD patients. mCCI combined with serum albumin level can improve the accuracy of predicting the long-term dialysis in PD patients.
