Clinical value of acute gastrointestinal injury score in assessing the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis
10.3760/cma.j.cn115667-20201210-00200
- VernacularTitle:急性胃肠损伤评分对急性胰腺炎患者病情严重程度及预后评估的价值
- Author:
Dongjie FAN
;
Yanbo ZENG
;
Yuanhang DONG
;
Pingping ZHANG
;
Yingxiao SONG
;
Zhaoshen LI
;
Yiqi DU
- From:
Chinese Journal of Pancreatology
2021;21(2):89-93
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the predictive value of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) score for the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP), infectious pancreatic necrosis and patients′ death.Methods:Clinical data of 719 patients with AP were collected from the AP database of the National Clinical Research Center for Digestive System Diseases from January 2016 to June 2018. According to the severity of the disease, they were divided into MAP group (506 cases), MSAP group (112 cases) and SAP group (101 cases). AGI, APACHEⅡ, MCTSI and BISAP scores were calcululated in the three groups. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. The predictive value of the above four scoring systems for the hospitalization days, disease severity, infectious pancreatic necrosis and death was analyzed, respectively.Results:There were no cases of infectious pancreatic necrosis or death in the MAP group, but there were 9 cases of infectious pancreatic necrosis and 2 deaths in the MSAP group and 19 cases of infectious pancreatic necrosis and 8 deaths in the SAP group. There was a strong correlation between AGI score and AP patients′ hospitalization days ( r=0.619). AUC of AGI, APACHEⅡ, MCTSI and BISAP score in predicting the AP patients′ severity (MSAP+ SAP) was 0.967 (95% CI 0.951-0.982), 0.769(95% CI 0.720-0.899), 0.842(95% CI 0.809-0.875), 0.862 (95% CI0.832-0.893). AUC for forecasting infectious pancreatic necrosis was 0.803, 0.677, 0.692, 0.724, and the 95% CI was 0.724-0.882, 0.573-0.781, 0.582-0.636, 0.801-0.812. AUC for predicting death in patients with AP were 0.915, 0.597, 0.659, 0.812, and the 95% CI were 0.843-0.986, 0.444-0.751, 0.498-0.698 and 0.882-0.926. AGI score had the highest predictive value, followed by BISAP score, and the correlation between these two scores was the closest. The predictive value of AGI combined with BISAP score for infectious pancreatic necrosis and patient death (AUC were 0.837, 0.942, 95% CI were 0.770-0.903, 0.897-0.987) was better than that of AGI and BISAP score alone. Conclusions:AGI score combined with BISAP score is more effective in predicting the severity of AP, the occurrence of infectious pancreatic necrosis or patient death.
