Establishment and application of a risk prediction model for ICU acquired weakness

Zhuyue Jiang; Shengqiang Zou; Jiaming HU; Li Chen; Yaji Yao; Xiaoxin Yan; Jinhan Liu

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Establishment and application of a risk prediction model for ICU acquired weakness

VernacularTitle:综合ICU患者获得性衰弱风险预测模型的构建与应用
Author: Zhuyue JIANG ; Shengqiang ZOU ; Jiaming HU ; Li CHEN ; Yaji YAO ; Xiaoxin YAN ; Jinhan LIU
From: Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing 2021;37(11):807-812
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective:To analyze the risk factors of Intensive Care Unit-Acquired Weakness, and to develop and verify the model.Methods:A total of 247 patients admitted to ICU patients from November 2018 to October 2019 were selected, and risk factors between ICU acquired weakness group ( n=106) and non-ICU acquired weakness group( n=141)were compared using logistic regression for model construction.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to verify the goodness of fit of the model. The area under the ROC curve was used to test the model to predict the effects. From November 2019 to May 2020, 106 patients were recruited for application of the model. Results:The incidence of ICU acquired weakness in this study was 42.91%(106/247), and 44.34%(47/106),the study finally included age ( OR=1.043) ,mechanical ventilation time ( OR=1.140) , APACHE II score ( OR=1.081) , blood sugar ( OR=1.117) , lactic acid( OR=1.459) ,and neuromuscular blockers ( OR=3.499) to construct the risk prediction. The model formula was P=1/1+exp (- Z) =1/1+exp (8.808-0.042×age -1.252×neuromuscular blockers-0.078×APACHE II score -0.110×blood sugar -0.378×lactic acid -0.131×mechanical ventilation time. The area under the ROC curve of this model was 0.896 (95% CI: 0.824-0.914) , the maximum value of the Youden index was 0.577, and the corresponding sensitivity was 0.754,the specificity was 0.823,the cutoff value was 0.503. The model verification results the sensibility of 70.2%, the specificity of 88.1%, and the accuracy of 80.2%. Conclusion:The predictic model of ICU acquired weakness couducted in this study has satisfactory prediction effect, which can provide a reference for clinical screening of high-risk patients.