Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease.
- Author:
Shijin YUAN
1
;
Yong PAN
2
;
Yan XIA
1
;
Yan ZHANG
3
;
Jiangnan CHEN
4
;
Wei ZHENG
5
;
Xiaoping XU
6
;
Xinyou XIE
7
;
Jun ZHANG
8
Author Information
- Publication Type:Multicenter Study
- Keywords: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19); Duration of viral shedding; Nomogram; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
- MeSH: Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Antibodies, Viral/blood*; Area Under Curve; COVID-19/virology*; Female; Humans; Lymphocyte Count; Male; Middle Aged; Nomograms; Proportional Hazards Models; Retrospective Studies; Viral Load; Virus Shedding
- From: Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B 2021;22(4):318-329
- CountryChina
- Language:English
- Abstract: With the number of cases of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) increasing rapidly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that patients with mild or moderate symptoms could be released from quarantine without nucleic acid retesting, and self-isolate in the community. This may pose a potential virus transmission risk. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the duration of viral shedding for individual COVID-19 patients. This retrospective multicentric study enrolled 135 patients as a training cohort and 102 patients as a validation cohort. Significant factors associated with the duration of viral shedding were identified by multivariate Cox modeling in the training cohort and combined to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of viral shedding at 9, 13, 17, and 21 d after admission. The nomogram was validated in the validation cohort and evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve. A higher absolute lymphocyte count (
