Predicting COVID-19 epidemiological trend by applying population mobility data in two-stage modeling.

Shu LI; Qinchuan Wang; Sicong Wang; Junlin Jia; Changzheng Yuan; Sisi Wang; Xifeng WU; Shuyin Cao; Chen Chen; Xiaolin XU; Yuanqing YE; Zhengping XU; Hao Lei; Zhijun Ying; Kejia HU; Vermund Sten H

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Predicting COVID-19 epidemiological trend by applying population mobility data in two-stage modeling.

Author: Shu LI ¹ ; Qinchuan WANG ¹ ; Sicong WANG ¹ ; Junlin JIA ¹ ; Changzheng YUAN ¹ ; Sisi WANG ¹ ; Xifeng WU ¹ ; Shuyin CAO ¹ ; Chen CHEN ¹ ; Xiaolin XU ¹ ; Yuanqing YE ¹ ; Zhengping XU ¹ ; Hao LEI ¹ ; Zhijun YING ¹ ; Kejia HU ¹ ; Vermund STEN H ¹
Author Information

1. Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases，Zhejiang University，Hangzhou 310003，China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019； China; Imported cases; Indigenous cases; Prediction; Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model
MeSH: COVID-19; China/epidemiology*; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2
From: Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2021;50(1):68-73
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract: :To predict the epidemiological trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by mathematical modeling based on the population mobility and the epidemic prevention and control measures. : As of February 8，2020，the information of 151 confirmed cases in Yueqing，Zhejiang province were obtained，including patients' infection process，population mobility between Yueqing and Wuhan，etc. To simulate and predict the development trend of COVID-19 in Yueqing, the study established two-stage mathematical models，integrating the population mobility data with the date of symptom appearance of confirmed cases and the transmission dynamics of imported and local cases. : It was found that in the early stage of the pandemic，the number of daily imported cases from Wuhan (using the date of symptom appearance) was positively associated with the number of population travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing on the same day and 6 and 9 days before that. The study predicted that the final outbreak size in Yueqing would be 170 according to the number of imported cases estimated by consulting the population number travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing and the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model; while the number would be 165 if using the reported daily number of imported cases. These estimates were close to the 170，the actual monitoring number of cases in Yueqing as of April 27，2020. : The two-stage modeling approach used in this study can accurately predict COVID-19 epidemiological trend.