Assessment of the global status of COVID-19 epidemics
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2021.03.002
- VernacularTitle:全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行现状评估
- Author:
Yan LIU
1
;
Zhao WANG
1
;
Heng SHEN
1
;
Beifang YANG
1
;
Yeqing TONG
1
;
Faxian ZHAN
1
;
Jietao WANG
2
Author Information
1. Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079,China
2. Wuhan Center of China Geological Survey（Central South Science and Technology Innovation Center for Geosciences）, Wuhan 430205,China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
COVID-19;
Real-time dependent reproduction number;
MDS analysis;
Epidemic status assessment
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2021;32(3):6-11
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the global status of COVID-19 epidemics, so as to preliminarily forecast the epidemic trend. Methods The epidemiological data of 208 countries and the prevention and control policies implemented by typical countries from December 31, 2019 to December 14, 2020 were collected. We use the cumulative incidence rate, cumulative mortality, cumulative fatality and real-time dependent reproduction number (Rt) to analyze the epidemic status. We use the provenance package to group different countries and discuss the effect of prevention and control measures. Results As of December 14, 2020, a cumulative incidence of 93.49 per 10000, a cumulative mortality rate of 0.21‰, and a cumulative fatality rate of 3.1‰ had been reported globally.112 of the 208 countries still had Rt ≥ 1.0, and 96 countries had Rt <1.0. The grouping of 208 countries showed that countries from the same continent often gather together and were geographically adjacent. Countries that were geographically adjacent could easily be grouped together. Conclusion As of December 14, 2020, the epidemic situation in most countries had not been effectively controlled, and epidemic prevention and control are facing greater pressure. Sub-Saharan countries currently had a high Rt , and the government had adopted more relaxed epidemic prevention measures. The epidemic situation in this region may continue to deteriorate, and needs to be focused in the later period.
