The epidemic trend of viral hepatitis in Nanjing from 1989 to 2020
10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2021.03.005
- Author:
WU Xiao Qing
;
XU Yang Ting
;
SU Jing Jing
;
XU Qing
;
WANG Wei Xiang
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
viral hepatitis;
incidence;
autoregressive integrated moving average model;
annual percent change
- From:
Journal of Preventive Medicine
2021;33(3):236-240
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemic trend of viral hepatitis in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019 and predict the incidence in 2020, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis.
Methods:The incidence data of viral hepatitis in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019 was retrieved from Nanjng Center for Disease Control and Prevention and National Infectious Disease Reporting System. The epidemic trend was analyzed by estimating the annual percent change ( APC ) and the average annual percent change ( AAPC ). The seasonal incidence of different types of viral hepatitis was analyzed by seasonal index. The autoregressive integrated moving average model ( ARIMA ) was built to predict monthly incidence rate of viral hepatitis in 2020.
Results:The annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis was 62.00/100 000 in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019, showing a downward trend ( AAPC=8.4%, P<0.05 ). From 1998 to 2019, the annual incidence rates of hepatitis A, B, C and E were 1.98/100 000, 14.31/100 000, 2.30/100 000 and 2.60/100 000. The incidence of hepatitis A and B showed downward trends ( AAPC=-11.81%, -6.02%, both P<0.05 ); the incidence trend of hepatitis C was not obvious ( P>0.05 ); the incidence of hepatitis E showed an increasing trend ( AAPC=4.82%, P<0.05 ). From 2015 to 2019, the third and fourth quarters were the epidemic seasons of hepatitis A, B and C, while the first and second quarters were the epidemic seasons of hepatitis E. The ARIMA model predicted that the monthly incidence rates of viral hepatitis in 2020 would range from 1.26/100 000 to 3.69/100 000, among which hepatitis B ranged from 1.21/100 000 to 2.58/100 000, hepatitis C from 0.20/100 000 to 0.48/100 000, hepatitis E from 0.09/100 000 to 0.25/100 000.
Conclusions:The incidence of viral hepatitis in Nanjing shows a downward trend. Among different types of hepatitis, hepatitis B has a higher incidence. All types of hepatitis have epidemic seasons. It is predicted that the monthly incidence rates of viral hepatitis will be 1.26/100 000 to 3.69/100 000 in 2020.
- Full text:1989—2020年南京市病毒性肝炎流行趋势分析.pdf
