Construction and analysis of a predictive model for posthepatectomy recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma based on preoperative CXCL13 measurement
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2021.04.020
- VernacularTitle:基于术前人B-淋巴细胞趋化因子1检测的肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后复发预测模型的构建及分析
- Author:
Mingwei LI
1
;
Jian GAO
;
Xiangwei ZHAI
;
Xiangjun QIAN
;
Xiajie WEN
;
Mingjie YAO
;
Zhaojun DUAN
;
Erjiang ZHAO
;
Ling ZHANG
;
Fengmin LU
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
- Publication Type:Research Article
- Keywords:
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular;
Hepatectomy;
Recurrence;
Forecasting;
Models, Statistical
- From:
Journal of Clinical Hepatology
2021;37(4):823-828
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo investigate the serological markers associated with posthepatectomy recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and to establish a prognostic model to evaluate whether palliative hepatectomy is suitable for such patients. MethodsA total of 111 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy in the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University from February 2009 to July 2013 and received follow-up were enrolled. Basic clinical data were collected and the patients were divided into recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether recurrence was observed during follow-up. The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups and the Wilcoxon rank sum test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method, and survival differences were analyzed using the log-rank test. A Cox regression analysis was used to perform univariate and multivariate analyses, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate prediction efficiency. ResultsThe Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the patients with low alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and fibrinogen and high CXCL13 had a longer median time to recurrence (P＜0.05). AFP (hazard ratio ［HR］［95%CI］=1.69(1.03~2.79), P=0.039), GGT (HR［95%CI］=1.89(1.14~3.14), P=0.014), and CXCL13 (HR［95%CI］=0.54(0.33~0.89), P=0.015) were independent factors associated with posthepatectomy recurrence. The prognostic index PI=0.526×AFP+0.637×GGT-0.616×CXCL13 established based on these factors had an AUC of 0.87, a sensitivity of 93.75%, and a specificity of 63.64% in predicting recurrence within 0-3 months after palliative hepatectomy, with a significant reduction in prediction efficiency for recurrence within 0-6 months (AUC=0.68) or a longer period of time. The recurrence prediction efficiency of this model for palliative hepatectomy was significantly higher than that for radical resection. ConclusionThe prognostic model established based on CXCL13, AFP, and GGT can be used to evaluate the risk of early recurrence after palliative hepatectomy and thus helps clinicians to make diagnosis and treatment decisions based on patients’ benefits.
