Spatiotemporal changes and prediction of maternal mortality in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn115624-20200901-00657
- VernacularTitle:我国孕产妇死亡率时空变化及预测分析
- Author:
Xiufang LU
1
;
Binglin LIU
;
Huili QU
;
Yinfei WU
Author Information
1. 山东大学齐鲁医院（青岛）医务部，青岛 266035
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Management
2020;14(6):521-526
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the temporal and spatial trends of maternal mortality in China, and to predict the future situation of maternal mortality.Methods:Taking the national maternal mortality rate in 1991-2018 and the maternal mortality rate in 2009-2018 in various provinces and cities of China as the research objects, using the statistical description analysis method to analyze the changes of time and space of maternal mortality, and using ARIMA time series model to predict the future situation of maternal mortality in China, rural areas and cities.Results:Regarding to the spatial and temporal distribution of maternal mortality, the maternal mortality rate in China generally showed a certain decline trend. In 1991, the maternal mortality rate was 80.0/100 000, and in 2018, China′s maternal mortality rate was 18.3/100 000, 77.1% lower than that in 1991, with an average annual growth rate of-5.3%; In 2009, Tibet′s maternal mortality rate was the highest, 232.2/100 000, and Jiangsu′s maternal mortality rate was the lowest, 5.2/100 000, with a difference of 44.7times After nine years of development, Tibet is still the province with the highest maternal mortality rate in China, which is 56.5/100 000, while Shanghai has the lowest maternal mortality rate, which is 1.4/100 000, with a difference of 40.4times. In 1991, the rural and urban maternal mortality rates were 46.3/100, 000 and 100.0/100, 000, respectively, and the urban-rural mortality rate was 1∶2.16. By 2022, the urban-rural mortality rate in China was 1∶0.95. Regarding the prediction of maternal mortality for the future, the national maternal mortality rate in 2022 is 10.1/100 000, the urban maternal mortality rate is 16.0/100 000, and the rural maternal mortality rate is 15.0/100 000.Conclusion:The maternal mortality rate in China has been greatly reduced, and the gap between urban and rural areas has decreased from 53.7/100 000 in 1991 to 0.7/100 000 in 2022, showing a downward trend. However, from the model prediction results, there is a slight rebound in the urban maternal mortality rate, while the rural maternal mortality rate remains stable, which suggests that the government and the health administration should pay more attention to the growing trend of urban maternal mortality while taking reasonable measures to reduce the rural maternal mortality rate, so as to avoid the rebound of urban maternal mortality rate.
