Risk factors of rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury and establishment of risk contingency model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20191226-01085
- VernacularTitle:轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤危险因素探讨及风险列线图模型的建立
- Author:
Fang CHEN
1
;
Quanjing CHEN
Author Information
1. 湖北医药学院附属东风医院儿童医疗中心，湖北十堰 442001
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2020;43(12):1101-1105
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors of rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury and the value of establishment of a risk map model.Methods:The clinical data of 247 patients with rotavirus enteritis in Dongfeng Hospital of Hubei University Medicine from January 2017 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into the myocardial injury group(158 patients) and the non-myocardial injury group(89 patients) according to the happening of myocardial injury, and the basic information of all patients was retrieved. Independent risk factors for mycotic enteritis with myocardial injury were analyzed by univariate analysisand multiple Logistic regression analysis.A nomogram prediction model was established using R software, and the accuracy and discrimination of the nomogram model were verified.Results:The univariate analysis showed that the age, vomiting, severe dehydration, electrolyte disturbance, acidosis, and abnormal electrocardiogram were the risk factors of rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury ( P < 0.05). The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the age ranged between 6 months and 1 year ( OR = 1.989, 95% CI 1.123-3.524), vomiting ( OR = 2.509, 95% CI 1.405-4.480), severe dehydration ( OR = 2.782, 95% CI 1.083-7.142), electrolyte disturbance ( OR = 1.655, 95% CI 1.011-3.007) and acidosis ( OR = 2.417, 95% CI 1.348-4.332) were independent risk factors for rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury ( P < 0.05). The collinear chart prediction model established showed that it had good prediction ability. At the same time, the collinear chart model was verified using Bootstrap internal verification method. The C-index index was 0.736 (95% CI 0.704-0.768) indicated that the column of the line graph model had good accuracy and discrimination. Conclusions:Ages from 6 months to 1 year, vomiting, severe dehydration, electrolyte disturbance, and acidosis are independent risk factors for rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury. The establishment of a related nomogram predictive model is helpful for clinical personnel to screen high-risk populations and has guiding significance in prevention and treatment measures.
