Fitting prediction of transmissibility and incidence trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Ningxia
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2020.06.002
- VernacularTitle:宁夏新型冠状病毒肺炎传播力及发病趋势拟合预测研究
- Author:
Jiancai DU
1
;
Yi YANG
1
;
Jianhua ZHAO
1
;
Yu ZHAO
2
;
Yuan LIU
1
Author Information
1. NingXia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750001, China
2. The school of Public Health and Management in Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan , Ningxia 750001 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia;
Effective Reproduction Number;
Richards model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2020;31(6):6-9
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the change in transmissibility of novel coronavirus pneumonia and predict the trend of the incidence, and to provide a reference for the government to better respond to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Methods The EpiEstimof R language software was used to estimate the change of effective basic reproduction number, and the Richards model was run by Matlab7.0 software to fit the cumulative number of confirmed cases and the number of suspected cases. The coefficient of determination and root mean squared error were used to evaluate the fitting effect of the model. Results A total of 75 confirmed cases and 107 suspected cases were reported in Ningxia. The strict implementation of various prevention and control measures gradually reduced the effective basic reproduction number from 3.82 to less than 1, indicating that the epidemic was under control. The Richards model was used to fit the cumulative confirmed cases and suspected cases, which revealed that the natural growth rates were 0.16 and 0.23, and the coefficients of determination were 0.991 and 0.998, respectively. Conclusion Combined with the effective basic reproduction number, the Richards model fitted the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia, which can be used to predict the trend of incidence of new coronavirus pneumonia.
